Cotton's Week: August 13, 2004

Cotton's Week: August 13, 2004

enlist duo

®PhytoGen and the PhytoGen Logo are trademarks of PhytoGen Seed Company, LLC. ®™DOW Diamond, Enlist, Enlist Duo and the Enlist logo are trademarks of The Dow Chemical Company (“Dow”) or E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (“DuPont”) or affiliated companies of Dow or DuPont. The Enlist weed control system is owned and developed by Dow AgroSciences LLC. Enlist Duo® and Enlist One herbicides are not yet registered for use in all states or counties. Contact your state pesticide regulatory agency to determine if a product is registered for sale or use in your area. Enlist Duo and Enlist One herbicides are the only 2,4-D product authorized for use on Enlist crops. Always read and follow label directions. PhytoGen Seed Company is a joint venture between Mycogen Corporation, an affiliate of Dow AgroSciences LLC, and the J.G. Boswell Company.
Framework Agreement Clarified

During the American Cotton Producers/Cotton Foundation meeting last week in Albuquerque, NM, USTR Ambassador Allen Johnson told attendees that the WTO Framework Agreement’s requirement for reducing domestic support by 20% is not applicable to the prevailing $19.1 billion amber box ceiling. The relevant number for the 20% reduction is about $49 billion, comprised of amber box payments, plus product-specific and non-product-specific de minimis and blue box payments. Under the Framework Agreement, the US would have, for the first time, access to the blue box, which is currently available only to the EU.

NCC President/CEO Mark Lange said, "References to various boxes and de minimis allocations provide ample opportunity for misunderstanding. However, statements from Ambassadors Robert Zoellick and Allen Johnson following the Framework’s adoption, together with a review by the NCC, suggest that there is sufficient structural flexibility in the way cuts can be made to maintain an effective farm program."

Lange cautioned, though, that this reduction requirement is characterized as a first-year installment and it will be up to US negotiators to ensure that any cuts beyond the first year continue to move global subsidies toward harmonization and are not unfair to US agriculture.

Lange said, "It is not the domestic subsidy provisions of the Framework Agreement that are the source of our concern. We continue to be troubled by the specific references to cotton."

In other reports at the meeting, Mike and Christy Seyfert, key staffers on the Senate and House Agriculture Committees, respectively, outlined the issues that will come before those panels and Congress. Senior NCC staff analyzed the ’04 Congressional elections and updated the groups on environmental issues and the WTO Brazil case against the US cotton program

In other business, Allen B. Helms, Jr., a Clarkedale, AR, producer, was named Cotton Foundation president for ’04-05. He succeeds Alabama producer Larkin Martin, who will serve as Foundation chairman. C.B. “Chuck” Coley, a Vienna, GA, producer, was elected as a new trustee.

Foundation trustees earlier approved 29 general research and education projects funded at $393,000 for ’04-05. The projects cover work ranging from remote sensing support of precision farming in the Texas High Plains to maintaining cotton lint and seed quality during module building and storage. An updated Foundation web site can be found at http://foundation.cotton.org/.



NCC Expresses Support for USDA’s West African Initiative

The NCC joined other commodity groups in applauding the USDA’s efforts at the recent West African Science and Technology Conference held in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso late last month. The letter, sent by the AgBiotech Planning Committee, of which the NCC is a founding member, described a resolution adopted by West African ministers as a “significant achievement.” That resolution calls for greater research and investment in agricultural biotechnology and recommends the creation of a West Africa center for biotechnology.

The conference is the latest in a series of meetings being held between developed and developing nations that focuses on new innovations and technology, such as biotechnology, as a means of furthering food security around the world. NCC Chairman Woody Anderson participated in the conference and in other meetings in Burkino Faso, where he presented the U.S. cotton industry’s views on biotechnology and other cultural practices that help maintain US cotton production as one of the world’s best and most efficient.



USDA Sees 20 Million Plus for ’04

In its August crop report, USDA estimated a ’04-05 US crop of 20.18 million bales – with upland production put at 19.48 million bales and ELS production at 703,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 13.32 million acres, implying non-harvested area of 552,000 acres based on USDA’s revised June acreage report. The resulting abandonment rate is roughly 4% for the ’04-05 crop. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 727 pounds, 60 pounds above the 5-year average.

On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 4.56 million bales, based on harvested acres of 2.97 million and a regional per harvested acre average yield of 736 pounds, 110 above the region’s 5-year average. All states are expected to see an increase in yields when compared to their respective 5-year averages with the greatest gains projected for Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama and North Carolina. All of these states are expected to see an increase in expected yield of 100 pounds or greater. Virginialeads the region with an expected yield of 877 pounds per harvested acre, 185 above their 5-year average.

In the Mid-South, expected production is 5.82 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 3.46 million acres and the expected yield is 809 pounds per harvested acre. Only Louisianalags behind their 5-year average in terms of yield with a forecast of 637 pounds per harvested acre.

The Southwest upland crop is an estimated 6.72 million bales. Expected harvested area is 5.80 million acres and the regional average yield is 557 pounds per harvested acre, exceeding the 5-year average in all of the region’s states.

Upland production in the West is an estimated 2.38 million bales with harvested area of 845,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,352 pounds. Expected yields are above the 5-year average in all of that region’s states.

The ELS crop is an estimated 703,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 250,000 acres with an average per acre harvested yield of 1,350 pounds.

U.S. Cotton Crop, 2004-05

PLANTED
ACRES
Thou.

HARV.
ACRES
Thou.

YIELD PER
HARV.
ACRE
Lb.

5-YEAR
AVG.
YIELD
Lb.

480-
P
OUND
BALES
Thou.

UPLAND
SOUTHEAST
3,017
2,972
736
626
4,558
Alabama
550
545
749
608
850
Florida
105
103
597
532
128
Georgia
1,330
1,300
738
647
2,000
North Carolina
730
725
728
628
1,100
South Carolina
220
218
731
560
332
Virginia
82
81
877
692
148
MID-SOUTH
3,520
3,455
809
748
5,820
Arkansas
950
930
877
809
1,700
Louisiana
500
490
637
699
650
Mississippi
1,100
1,080
800
754
1,800
Missouri
400
390
849
753
690
Tennessee
570
565
833
683
980
SOUTHWEST
6,230
5,795
557
482
6,722
Kansas
120
100
768
465
160
Oklahoma
210
195
645
532
262
Texas
5,900
5,500
550
480
6,300
WEST
850
845
1,352
1,295
2,380
Arizona
230
228
1,284
1,277
610
California
560
557
1,422
1,352
1,650
New Mexico
60
60
960
785
120
TOTAL UPLAND
13,617
13,067
716
657
19,480
TOTAL ELS
252
250
1,350
1,206
703
Arizona
3
3
960
894
6
California
220
219
1,403
1,255
640
New Mexico
8
8
840
893
14
Texas
21
20
1,032
928
43
ALL COTTON
13,869
13,317
727
667
20,183
Source: USDA-NASS August Crop Production Report.


USDA Projects Larger Stocks for ’04-05

In its August crop report, USDA estimated a ’04-05 US crop of 20.18 million bales – with upland production put at 19.48 million bales and ELS production at 703,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 13.32 million acres, implying non-harvested area of 552,000 acres based on USDA’s revised June acreage report. The resulting abandonment rate is roughly 4% for the ’04-05 crop. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 727 pounds, 60 pounds above the 5-year average.

On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 4.56 million bales, based on harvested acres of 2.97 million and a regional per harvested acre average yield of 736 pounds, 110 above the region’s 5-year average. All states are expected to see an increase in yields when compared to their respective 5-year averages with the greatest gains projected for Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama and North Carolina. All of these states are expected to see an increase in expected yield of 100 pounds or greater. Virginialeads the region with an expected yield of 877 pounds per harvested acre, 185 above their 5-year average.

In the Mid-South, expected production is 5.82 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 3.46 million acres and the expected yield is 809 pounds per harvested acre. Only Louisianalags behind their 5-year average in terms of yield with a forecast of 637 pounds per harvested acre.

The Southwest upland crop is an estimated 6.72 million bales. Expected harvested area is 5.80 million acres and the regional average yield is 557 pounds per harvested acre, exceeding the 5-year average in all of the region’s states.

Upland production in the West is an estimated 2.38 million bales with harvested area of 845,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,352 pounds. Expected yields are above the 5-year average in all of that region’s states.

The ELS crop is an estimated 703,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 250,000 acres with an average per acre harvested yield of 1,350 pounds.

U.S. Cotton Crop, 2004-05

 

PLANTED

ACRES

Thou.

HARV.

ACRES

Thou.

YIELD PER

HARV.

ACRE

Lb.

5-YEAR

AVG.

YIELD

Lb.

480-

POUND

BALES

Thou.

UPLAND

 

 

 

 

 

SOUTHEAST

3,017  

2,972 

736  

626 

4,558  

   Alabama

550  

545 

749  

608 

850  

   Florida

105  

103 

597  

532 

128  

   Georgia

1,330  

1,300 

738  

647 

2,000  

   North Carolina

730  

725 

728  

628 

1,100  

   South Carolina

220  

218 

731   

560 

332  

   Virginia

82  

81 

877  

692 

148  

MID-SOUTH

3,520  

3,455 

809  

748 

5,820  

   Arkansas

950  

930 

877  

809 

1,700  

   Louisiana

500  

490 

637  

699 

650  

   Mississippi

1,100  

1,080 

800  

754 

1,800  

   Missouri

400  

390 

849  

753 

690  

   Tennessee

570  

565 

833  

683 

980  

SOUTHWEST

6,230  

5,795 

557  

482 

6,722  

   Kansas

120  

100 

768  

465 

160  

   Oklahoma

210  

195 

645  

532 

262  

   Texas

5,900  

5,500 

550  

480 

6,300  

WEST

850  

845 

1,352  

1,295 

2,380  

   Arizona

230  

228 

1,284  

1,277 

610  

   California

560  

557 

1,422  

1,352 

1,650  

   New Mexico

60  

60 

960  

785 

120  

TOTAL UPLAND

13,617  

13,067 

716  

657 

19,480  

TOTAL ELS

252  

250 

1,350  

1,206 

703  

   Arizona

3  

3 

960  

894 

6  

   California

220  

219 

1,403  

1,255 

640  

   New Mexico

8  

8 

840  

893 

14  

   Texas

21  

20 

1,032  

928 

43  

ALL COTTON

13,869  

13,317 

727  

667 

20,183  



NCC Escalating Contamination Prevention Efforts

In its August crop report, USDA estimated a ’04-05 US crop of 20.18 million bales – with upland production put at 19.48 million bales and ELS production at 703,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 13.32 million acres, implying non-harvested area of 552,000 acres based on USDA’s revised June acreage report. The resulting abandonment rate is roughly 4% for the ’04-05 crop. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 727 pounds, 60 pounds above the 5-year average.

On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 4.56 million bales, based on harvested acres of 2.97 million and a regional per harvested acre average yield of 736 pounds, 110 above the region’s 5-year average. All states are expected to see an increase in yields when compared to their respective 5-year averages with the greatest gains projected for Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama and North Carolina. All of these states are expected to see an increase in expected yield of 100 pounds or greater. Virginialeads the region with an expected yield of 877 pounds per harvested acre, 185 above their 5-year average.

In the Mid-South, expected production is 5.82 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 3.46 million acres and the expected yield is 809 pounds per harvested acre. Only Louisianalags behind their 5-year average in terms of yield with a forecast of 637 pounds per harvested acre.

The Southwest upland crop is an estimated 6.72 million bales. Expected harvested area is 5.80 million acres and the regional average yield is 557 pounds per harvested acre, exceeding the 5-year average in all of the region’s states.

Upland production in the West is an estimated 2.38 million bales with harvested area of 845,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,352 pounds. Expected yields are above the 5-year average in all of that region’s states.

The ELS crop is an estimated 703,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 250,000 acres with an average per acre harvested yield of 1,350 pounds.

U.S. Cotton Crop, 2004-05

 

PLANTED

ACRES

Thou.

HARV.

ACRES

Thou.

YIELD PER

HARV.

ACRE

Lb.

5-YEAR

AVG.

YIELD

Lb.

480-

POUND

BALES

Thou.

UPLAND

 

 

 

 

 

SOUTHEAST

3,017  

2,972 

736  

626 

4,558  

   Alabama

550  

545 

749  

608 

850  

   Florida

105  

103 

597  

532 

128  

   Georgia

1,330  

1,300 

738  

647 

2,000  

   North Carolina

730  

725 

728  

628 

1,100  

   South Carolina

220  

218 

731   

560 

332  

   Virginia

82  

81 

877  

692 

148  

MID-SOUTH

3,520  

3,455 

809  

748 

5,820  

   Arkansas

950  

930 

877  

809 

1,700  

   Louisiana

500  

490 

637  

699 

650  

   Mississippi

1,100  

1,080 

800  

754 

1,800  

   Missouri

400  

390 

849  

753 

690  

   Tennessee

570  

565 

833  

683 

980  

SOUTHWEST

6,230  

5,795 

557  

482 

6,722  

   Kansas

120  

100 

768  

465 

160  

   Oklahoma

210  

195 

645  

532 

262  

   Texas

5,900  

5,500 

550  

480 

6,300  

WEST

850  

845 

1,352  

1,295 

2,380  

   Arizona

230  

228 

1,284  

1,277 

610  

   California

560  

557 

1,422  

1,352 

1,650  

   New Mexico

60  

60 

960  

785 

120  

TOTAL UPLAND

13,617  

13,067 

716  

657 

19,480  

TOTAL ELS

252  

250 

1,350  

1,206 

703  

   Arizona

3  

3 

960  

894 

6  

   California

220  

219 

1,403  

1,255 

640  

   New Mexico

8  

8 

840  

893 

14  

   Texas

21  

20 

1,032  

928 

43  

ALL COTTON

13,869  

13,317 

727  

667 

20,183  



New Record For US Cotton Exports

In its August crop report, USDA estimated a ’04-05 US crop of 20.18 million bales – with upland production put at 19.48 million bales and ELS production at 703,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 13.32 million acres, implying non-harvested area of 552,000 acres based on USDA’s revised June acreage report. The resulting abandonment rate is roughly 4% for the ’04-05 crop. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 727 pounds, 60 pounds above the 5-year average.

On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 4.56 million bales, based on harvested acres of 2.97 million and a regional per harvested acre average yield of 736 pounds, 110 above the region’s 5-year average. All states are expected to see an increase in yields when compared to their respective 5-year averages with the greatest gains projected for Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama and North Carolina. All of these states are expected to see an increase in expected yield of 100 pounds or greater. Virginialeads the region with an expected yield of 877 pounds per harvested acre, 185 above their 5-year average.

In the Mid-South, expected production is 5.82 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 3.46 million acres and the expected yield is 809 pounds per harvested acre. Only Louisianalags behind their 5-year average in terms of yield with a forecast of 637 pounds per harvested acre.

The Southwest upland crop is an estimated 6.72 million bales. Expected harvested area is 5.80 million acres and the regional average yield is 557 pounds per harvested acre, exceeding the 5-year average in all of the region’s states.

Upland production in the West is an estimated 2.38 million bales with harvested area of 845,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,352 pounds. Expected yields are above the 5-year average in all of that region’s states.

The ELS crop is an estimated 703,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 250,000 acres with an average per acre harvested yield of 1,350 pounds.

U.S. Cotton Crop, 2004-05

 

PLANTED

ACRES

Thou.

HARV.

ACRES

Thou.

YIELD PER

HARV.

ACRE

Lb.

5-YEAR

AVG.

YIELD

Lb.

480-

POUND

BALES

Thou.

UPLAND

 

 

 

 

 

SOUTHEAST

3,017  

2,972 

736  

626 

4,558  

   Alabama

550  

545 

749  

608 

850  

   Florida

105  

103 

597  

532 

128  

   Georgia

1,330  

1,300 

738  

647 

2,000  

   North Carolina

730  

725 

728  

628 

1,100  

   South Carolina

220  

218 

731   

560 

332  

   Virginia

82  

81 

877  

692 

148  

MID-SOUTH

3,520  

3,455 

809  

748 

5,820  

   Arkansas

950  

930 

877  

809 

1,700  

   Louisiana

500  

490 

637  

699 

650  

   Mississippi

1,100  

1,080 

800  

754 

1,800  

   Missouri

400  

390 

849  

753 

690  

   Tennessee

570  

565 

833  

683 

980  

SOUTHWEST

6,230  

5,795 

557  

482 

6,722  

   Kansas

120  

100 

768  

465 

160  

   Oklahoma

210  

195 

645  

532 

262  

   Texas

5,900  

5,500 

550  

480 

6,300  

WEST

850  

845 

1,352  

1,295 

2,380  

   Arizona

230  

228 

1,284  

1,277 

610  

   California

560  

557 

1,422  

1,352 

1,650  

   New Mexico

60  

60 

960  

785 

120  

TOTAL UPLAND

13,617  

13,067 

716  

657 

19,480  

TOTAL ELS

252  

250 

1,350  

1,206 

703  

   Arizona

3  

3 

960  

894 

6  

   California

220  

219 

1,403  

1,255 

640  

   New Mexico

8  

8 

840  

893 

14  

   Texas

21  

20 

1,032  

928 

43  

ALL COTTON

13,869  

13,317 

727  

667 

20,183  



Suits Threaten Ag Pesticides Application

In its August crop report, USDA estimated a ’04-05 US crop of 20.18 million bales – with upland production put at 19.48 million bales and ELS production at 703,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 13.32 million acres, implying non-harvested area of 552,000 acres based on USDA’s revised June acreage report. The resulting abandonment rate is roughly 4% for the ’04-05 crop. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 727 pounds, 60 pounds above the 5-year average.

On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 4.56 million bales, based on harvested acres of 2.97 million and a regional per harvested acre average yield of 736 pounds, 110 above the region’s 5-year average. All states are expected to see an increase in yields when compared to their respective 5-year averages with the greatest gains projected for Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama and North Carolina. All of these states are expected to see an increase in expected yield of 100 pounds or greater. Virginialeads the region with an expected yield of 877 pounds per harvested acre, 185 above their 5-year average.

In the Mid-South, expected production is 5.82 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 3.46 million acres and the expected yield is 809 pounds per harvested acre. Only Louisianalags behind their 5-year average in terms of yield with a forecast of 637 pounds per harvested acre.

The Southwest upland crop is an estimated 6.72 million bales. Expected harvested area is 5.80 million acres and the regional average yield is 557 pounds per harvested acre, exceeding the 5-year average in all of the region’s states.

Upland production in the West is an estimated 2.38 million bales with harvested area of 845,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,352 pounds. Expected yields are above the 5-year average in all of that region’s states.

The ELS crop is an estimated 703,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 250,000 acres with an average per acre harvested yield of 1,350 pounds.

U.S. Cotton Crop, 2004-05

 

PLANTED

ACRES

Thou.

HARV.

ACRES

Thou.

YIELD PER

HARV.

ACRE

Lb.

5-YEAR

AVG.

YIELD

Lb.

480-

POUND

BALES

Thou.

UPLAND

 

 

 

 

 

SOUTHEAST

3,017  

2,972 

736  

626 

4,558  

   Alabama

550  

545 

749  

608 

850  

   Florida

105  

103 

597  

532 

128  

   Georgia

1,330  

1,300 

738  

647 

2,000  

   North Carolina

730  

725 

728  

628 

1,100  

   South Carolina

220  

218 

731   

560 

332  

   Virginia

82  

81 

877  

692 

148  

MID-SOUTH

3,520  

3,455 

809  

748 

5,820  

   Arkansas

950  

930 

877  

809 

1,700  

   Louisiana

500  

490 

637  

699 

650  

   Mississippi

1,100  

1,080 

800  

754 

1,800  

   Missouri

400  

390 

849  

753 

690  

   Tennessee

570  

565 

833  

683 

980  

SOUTHWEST

6,230  

5,795 

557  

482 

6,722  

   Kansas

120  

100 

768  

465 

160  

   Oklahoma

210  

195 

645  

532 

262  

   Texas

5,900  

5,500 

550  

480 

6,300  

WEST

850  

845 

1,352  

1,295 

2,380  

   Arizona

230  

228 

1,284  

1,277 

610  

   California

560  

557 

1,422  

1,352 

1,650  

   New Mexico

60  

60 

960  

785 

120  

TOTAL UPLAND

13,617  

13,067 

716  

657 

19,480  

TOTAL ELS

252  

250 

1,350  

1,206 

703  

   Arizona

3  

3 

960  

894 

6  

   California

220  

219 

1,403  

1,255 

640  

   New Mexico

8  

8 

840  

893 

14  

   Texas

21  

20 

1,032  

928 

43  

ALL COTTON

13,869  

13,317 

727  

667 

20,183  


Let Your Voice Be Heard: Vote!

Prices Effective Aug. 13- 19, 2004

Adjusted World Price, SLM 1 1/16

37.51 cents

*

Coarse Count Adjustment

0.00 cents

Current Step 2 Certificate Value

0.00 cents

Marketing Loan Gain Value

14.49 cents

Import Quotas Open

 3

Step 3 Quotas (480-lb. bales)

 356,008

ELS Payment Rate

 0.00 cents

*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
 
Five-Day Average
 
Current 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe

 52.57 cents

Forward 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe

 No quote

Coarse Count c.i.f. Northern Europe

 50.63 cents

Current US c.i.f. Northern Europe

 51.70 cents

Forward US c.i.f. Northern Europe

 No Quote

 
2003-04 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price  
 
Year-to-Date (August-June)

62.52 cents

**

**August-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment

Sponsored by
Dow AgroSciences