Upland cotton intentions are 12.3 million acres, an increase of nearly 14 percent from 2010, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 251,000 acres represent a 23 percent increase. The survey results were announced today at the NCC’s 2011 Annual Meeting being held February 4-6 in San Antonio.
Assuming an average abandonment rate of 11 percent, total upland and ELS harvested area would be about 11.1 million acres. Applying state-level yield assumptions to projected harvested acres generates a cotton crop of 19.2 million bales, compared with 2010’s total production of 18.3 million bales.
NCC Vice President Gary Adams emphasized that, “the cotton market is currently calling for more acres. However, competing crop prices are also strong. Final acreage decisions will be sensitive to how relative prices move between now and planting time. This, along with a number of other issues, including weather, could cause actual plantings to differ from growers’ stated intentions.”
Survey respondents through the Southeast indicated expansion in acreage in all states. In percentage terms, Virginia and North Carolina lead the way with increases of 26.9 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively. In both states, increased cotton acreages are coming at the expense of corn and soybeans. Growers in Florida report a planned increase of 18.3 percent, while increases in Alabama and South Carolina are 14 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively. In Alabama and Florida, cotton is the beneficiary of acres moving out of peanuts, while the South Carolina increase coincides with planned acreage reductions in corn and soybeans. Georgia, that region’s largest cotton, reports the smallest percentage increase at 6.0 percent, primarily due to a shift of acres from peanuts.
While all Mid-South states indicate more cotton acres, the magnitudes vary from an increase of 8.0 percent in Arkansas to a 39.5 percent increase in Tennessee. Mississippi indicates an increase of 24.8 percent, while Missouri and Louisiana are up by 12.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. In each of the five states, the survey suggests cotton will be pulling acres away from soybeans, while growers in Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee also plan to reduce corn acreage.
Growers in the Southwest are planning to bring 700,000 additional acres into cotton production, bringing the regional total to 6.59 million acres (+11.9 percent). In percentage terms, Kansas leads the region with an increase of 34.6 percent as the survey shows wheat and soybean acres being planted to cotton in 2011. Oklahoma acreage is showing a 14.4 percent rebound, again largely at the expense of wheat. For Texas, survey respondents intend to expand area by 11.5 percent.
The West region sees a 27.0 percent increase in upland plantings with all those states showing increases. In Arizona, intended area of 226,000 acres represents a 15.8 percent increase from the previous year. The expected increase in acreage is coming in response to better price signals and less competition from feed crops and specialty crops. At the time of the survey, California farmers intend to plant 172,000 acres (+38.8 percent) with the increase coming at the expense of specialty crops. California’s actual plantings ultimately could be dictated by water costs and availability. New Mexico is reporting intentions of 67,000 acres, up 42.5 percent from 2010.
In response to strong market signals, the survey indicates U.S. cotton growers intend to increase ELS plantings 23.1 percent to 251,000 acres in 2011. Each of the four ELS-producing states indicated more acres with California planting 225,000 acres, or 23.6 percent more than last year. In Arizona, a 47.2 percent increase brings area up to 3,700 acres. In New Mexico, growers intend to plant 3,500 acres (+28.2 percent), while Texas acres are estimated at 19,300 (+13.7 percent).).
(see table attached)
# # #
Prospective 2011 U.S. Cotton Area 2010 Actual (Thou.) 1/
2011 Intended (Thou.) 2/
Percent Change SOUTHEAST
6.0% North Carolina
26.1% South Carolina
38.8% New Mexico
42.5% TOTAL UPLAND
13.9% TOTAL ELS
23.6% New Mexico
13.7% ALL COTTON