Cotton's Week: June 12, 2008

Cotton's Week: June 12, 2008

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REVISED VERSION OF COTTON'S WEEK

This version contains a story about the NCC's move to new offices.



NCC Members Urged to Attend Farm Bill Review Session

NCC members are strongly encouraged to attend one of the 45 meetings NCC is conducting across the Cotton Belt during the weeks of June 16 and June 23. The sessions will begin on June 17 in the Southeast and Mid-South.

The purpose is to review key provisions of the new Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008. The latest version of those key provisions was posted today on the NCC’s web site at www.cotton.org/issues/members/07farmbill/final/frmbillsumm.cfm.

The meetings, which will include a question and answer period, are also open to other industry, media and agribusiness representatives.

Meeting locations, dates and times (all times local) can be found on the NCC’s web site at www.cotton.org/issues/members/07farmbill/meetings/frmmtgs.cfm.



USDA Releases ’08 Crop Loan Schedule

USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) released the premium and discount schedules for the ’08 upland and ELS cotton crop. The upland cotton schedule reflects the relevant provisions contained in the recently-approved ’08 farm bill.

Specifically, the ’08 schedule reflects the following calculations: premiums and discounts are determined based on the three-year weighted average of spot market data; collapses certain color and leaf combinations for qualities of cotton in which the leaf grade exceeds the color factor by more than one grade such that the premium/discount will be set equal to premium/discount of the quality with the same color factor but with a leaf factor that is one better than the color factor; and eliminates the split in the micronaire schedule between 32 and 33 staple lengths.

With producers and merchandisers currently making marketing decisions for the ’08 crop, the NCC commended FSA for their prompt publication of the schedule -- which can be found in the Price Support section FSA’s web site, www.fsa.usda.gov. A full schedule is posted under the Economics section of the NCC web site, www.cotton.org.



US Cotton Production Estimate Unchanged

In its June report, USDA gauged US ’07-08 cotton production at 19.21 million bales, unchanged from last month’s estimate. Exports were lowered 300,000 bales to 13.90 million bales, while mill use was unchanged at 4.60 million bales. The estimated total offtake now stands at 18.50 million bales generating ending stocks of 10.20 million bales. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio is 55.1%.

For the ’08-09 crop year, USDA projects a US crop of 14.50 million bales, also unchanged from the May report. Mill use remains at 4.30 million bales, while exports were raised 500,000 bales to 15.00 million bales. The estimated total offtake stands at 19.30 million bales resulting in ending stocks of 5.40 million bales. The projected ending stocks-to-use ratio is 28.0%.

USDA’s June report lowered world production for the ’07-08 marketing year by 430,000 bales to 120.04 million bales. World mill use was lowered 30,000 bales to 124.40 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks are estimated to be 61.82 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 49.7%.

For the ’08-09 crop year, USDA projects world production at 116.43 million bales, down 1.57 million bales from last month’s estimate. Mill use is estimated at 127.16 million bales, up 160,000 bales from last month. World ending stocks are estimated to be 54.09 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 42.5%.



CRP Annual Report Released

USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) released the FY07 report on the nation's largest private lands conservation program, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). The report, "CRP Enrollment Statistics and Program Summary," is available at: http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/annual_consv_2007.pdf.

"There is significant ongoing interest in CRP,” FSA Administrator Teresa Lasseter said. “It remains the largest public-private conservation partnership in America. The CRP has proven to be a dynamic and flexible program in achieving a wide variety of conservation goals. This report demonstrates how participation in CRP helps preserve our nation's resources."

The publication summarizes CRP’s accomplishments and reports that in FY07, CRP: reduced runoff of sediment by 207 million tons; lessened nitrogen runoff by 480 million pounds; decreased runoff of phosphorus by 108 million pounds; reduced soil erosion by wind and water by 470 million tons; sequestered 50 million tons of carbon dioxide; restored or maintained 2.1 million acres of wetland and adjacent upland buffers; and established or maintained 1.9 million acres of grass and forested buffers along the nation’s rivers and streams.

In addition, the summary includes: results of ’06’s re-enrollment and contract extension (REX) offer to holders of contracts originally set to expire between ’07 and ’10. It shows: 1) that contracts on 23 million of the 28 million eligible acres were extended or re-enrolled under new 10- to 15-year contracts, 2) the CRP contract expiration schedule, reflecting the results of REX; and 3) details on enrollment in CRP initiatives, such as the Upland Bird Habitat Buffer Initiative, the Bottomland Hardwood Tree Initiative and the Longleaf Pine Initiative.

Of the top five cotton-producing states, Texas has the most acres enrolled in the CRP at 4.1 million acres. Mississippi follows with 955,000 enrolled acres. In Georgia, Arkansas, and California – the remaining top five cotton producing states – CRP enrollment generally ranges between 150,000 and 300,000 acres.

For more CRP information, including monthly summaries and other recent reports, visit:  www.fsa.usda.gov/conservation.



“Cotton’s Revolutions” Conference Held in Dubai

Cotton Council International (CCI) and Cotton Incorporated’s “Cotton’s Revolutions From Sourcing to Sustainability” conference in Dubai gathered leaders of different cotton textile industry segments from the US, Europe, and South and Southeast Asia to address key issues facing the industry and discuss the effects of major developments in the world economy and society.

The CCI COTTON USA Supply Chain Marketing event also provided the brands and retailers an opportunity to meet with COTTON USA licensed suppliers in a speed-sourcing event that concluded with follow-up meetings at a trade show where the licensed mills and manufacturers exhibited their products.

The conference attracted 137 registrants. Participants included 18 brands and retailers from Germany, India, Italy, Sweden, Turkey and the United Kingdom, as well as mills and manufacturers from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand and Turkey. US, European and regional merchants exporting US cotton also participated.

Attendees heard a summary of the Seven Revolutions – how demographics, natural resource management, technology, the movement of information, global economic integration, conflict and governance will challenge companies and society as they move toward ’25. Key topics included the impact of the Seven Revolutions on the international cotton textile industry, cotton economics, the effect of hedge and index funds on international commodity prices, regional sourcing advantages, compliance certification, sustainability for cotton fiber and textile processing, and adding consumer value through branding.

Prior to the two-day conference, focus group studies were conducted among key textile leaders in South Asia, which were part of a series of international group discussions with cotton and textile leadership held in the US, Germany, United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong. Focus group results will be presented at the ’08 Sourcing USA Summit in Austin, TX, in November.



Sales Continue Surge, Shipments Strong

Net export sales for the week ending June 5 were 448,500 bales (480-lb). This brings total ’07-08 sales to approximately 15.3 million bales. Total sales at the same point in the ’06-07 marketing year were roughly 13.9 million bales. Total new crop (’08-09) sales are 874,200 bales.

Shipments for the week were 327,400 bales, bringing total exports to date to 11.1 million bales, compared with the 9.6 million bales at the comparable point in the ’06-07 marketing year.

With approximately two months remaining in the marketing year, weekly shipments must average roughly 354,000 bales to reach the USDA projection of 13.90 million bales.



NCC Moving to New Offices

Cotton’s Week is being distributed today electronically only -- by email and on the NCC web site -- due to the NCC’s move to its new headquarters building, where it will resume operations on Monday, June 16. The NCC’s new address is P.O. Box 2995, Cordova, TN  38088-2995. THE PHONE AND FAX NUMBERS WILL NOT CHANGE.



Prices Effective June 13-19, '08

Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16

61.75 cents

*

Coarse Count Adjustment

0.00 cents

Marketing Loan Gain Value

0.00 cents

Import Quotas Open

NA

Limited Global Import Quotas (480-lb bales)

NA

ELS Payment Rate

1.64 cents

*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
 
Five-Day Average
 
Current 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East

74.40 cents

Forward 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East

80.62 cents

Coarse Count CFR Far East

72.93 cents

Current US CFR Far East

73.10 cents

Forward US CFR Far East

NA

 
'07-08 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price  
 
Year-to-Date (August-April)

56.64 cents

**

**August-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment

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