Cotton's Week: September 14, 2007

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Baucus (D-MT) announced his intention to mark-up an agricultural tax package that will generate sufficient budget savings to create a permanent trust fund that could be used for disaster assistance.

Chairman Baucus indicated the provisions of the proposed package also could convert some conservation programs from a payment basis to tax credits, which could provide funds for the Agriculture Committee to use in other areas.

In addition to a Permanent Agriculture Disaster Relief Trust Fund and an option for participants in certain conservation programs to choose to receive tax credits in lieu of cash payments, Sen. Baucus indicated his package would clarify that certain Conservation Reserve Program payments made for certain mandatory conservation activities are rental income not subject to self-employment taxes. He indicated the package would create tax credit bonds for rural development, provide new incentives for alternative and renewable energy which were included in legislation previously approved by the Finance Committee, but not enacted into law, and make improvements to “Aggie Bonds” available to beginning farmer and ranchers.

In a related development, Agriculture Committee Chairman Harkin (D-IA) indicated he has tentatively scheduled Committee consideration of the farm bill for the week of Sept. 24.

In its September report, USDA projects the ’07-08 US cotton crop to reach 17.81 million bales, up 460,000 bales from the August report. US mill use and exports were unchanged at 4.60 million bales and 16.70 million bales, respectively. This generates a total ’07-08 offtake of 21.30 million bales. Ending stocks for ’07-08 are projected at 6.20 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 29.1%.

For the ’06-07 crop year, USDA gauged US production at 21.59 million bales with mill use unchanged from the August report at 4.95 million bales and exports unchanged at 13.00 million bales. Total offtake for the ’06-07 crop year is 17.95 million bales generating an ending stocks value of 9.70 million bales and a stocks-to-use ratio of 54.0%.

Regarding world projections, USDA’s September report raised ’07-08 production by 1.26 million bales from the August report to 117.18 million. Mill use was unchanged at a projected 127.78 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks for ’07-08 are projected to be 51.56 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 40.4%.

For the ’06-07 marketing year, USDA put world production at 119.15 million bales, down 100,000 bales from the August report. Mill use was raised 500,000 bales to 123.22 million. World ending stocks on July 31, ’07 are now pegged at 56.79 million bales for a corresponding stocks-to-use ratio of 46.1%.

USDA estimated ’07-08 US crop of 17.81 million bales includes a national average yield per harvested acre of 811 pounds, 30 pounds above the five-year average. Upland production was estimated at 17.02 million bales and ELS production at 793,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 10.54 million acres implying a non-harvested area of 304,000 acres based on USDA’s revised acreage report. The resulting abandonment rate is 2.8%.

On regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 3.16 million bales, based on harvested acres of 2.21 million and a regional average yield of 686 pounds, 19 pounds less than the region’s five-year average. In the Mid-South, expected production is 5.39 million bales. Harvested area is estimated at 2.71 million acres and the expected yield at 953 pounds per harvested acre. The Southwest upland crop is an estimated 7.29 million bales. Expected harvested area is 4.91 million acres and the regional average yield is 712 pounds per harvested acre. Upland production in the West is an estimated 1.18 million bales with harvested area of 416,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,364 pounds per harvested acre, 24 pounds more than its five-year average.

The ELS crop is an estimated 793,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 289,000 acres with an average yield of 1,317 pounds per harvested acre.

State-level results can be found in the following table.

US Cotton Crop, ’07-08
	PLANTED ACRES Thou.	HARV. ACRES Thou.	YIELD PER HARV. ACRE Lb.	5-YEAR AVG. YIELD Lb.	480- POUND BALES Thou.
UPLAND
SOUTHEAST	2,264	2,214	686	705	3,162
Alabama	400	390	578	664	470
Florida	84	82	644	636	110
Georgia	1,040	1,010	808	734	1,700
North Carolina	500	495	611	695	630
South Carolina	180	178	485	679	180
Virginia	60	59	586	745	72
MID-SOUTH	2,740	2,714	953	914	5,390
Arkansas	860	850	1,045	995	1,850
Louisiana	330	325	960	879	650
Mississippi	660	655	953	888	1,300
Missouri	390	389	925	925	750
Tennessee	500	495	815	853	840
SOUTHWEST	5,125	4,910	712	628	7,285
Kansas	50	45	480	524	45
Oklahoma	175	165	698	639	240
Texas	4,900	4,700	715	630	7,000
WEST	425	416	1,364	1,340	1,182
Arizona	180	178	1,375	1,357	510
California	195	194	1,410	1,381	570
New Mexico	50	44	1,113	897	102
TOTAL UPLAND	10,554	10,254	797	772	17,019
TOTAL ELS	293	289	1,317	1,239	793
Arizona	3	3	880	931	6
California	260	257	1,382	1,296	740
New Mexico	5	5	720	904	8
Texas	25	24	800	906	40
ALL COTTON	10,847	10,543	811	781	17,812
Source: USDA-NASS September Crop Production Report.

The NCC is reminding producers about the importance of using properly constructed and placed modules as well as well-conditioned module covers – to protect lint quality.

Detailed information can be found at the National Cotton Ginners Assoc. web site, http://www.cotton.org/ncga in a brochure, “What is the real cost of a cotton module tarp?”

Produced by the Texas Cooperative Extension Service, the brochure reminds producers that quality, value and a season’s investment can be undermined if seed cotton is not well protected from the elements.

Brochure funding was provided by the Texas Dept. of Agriculture—Food and Fibers Research Grant Program. Funding for module/cover research was provided by the Texas State Support Committee of Cotton Incorporated, the Texas Dept. of Agriculture—Food and Fibers Research Grant Program, The Cotton Foundation, and the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station.

Information on the ’07 Census of Agriculture is now available at www.agcensus.usda.gov – a new clearinghouse created by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to provide farmers, ranchers and the rest of the agricultural community with the latest news/information about the upcoming Census.

NASS will mail out Census forms on Dec. 28, ’07 to collect data for the ’07 calendar year. This mailing will include instructions on how to log in and respond to the Census via a secure web connection. Whether they choose to respond online or by mail, producers are asked to return their completed Census forms by Feb. 4, ’08.

Conducted every five years by the USDA, the Census is a complete count of the nation’s farms and ranches and the people who operate them. The Census looks at land use and ownership, operator characteristics, production practices, income and expenditures, and other topics. It provides the only source of uniform, comprehensive agricultural data for every county in the nation.

Additional support is being sought for the Peary Wilemon-National Cotton Ginners’ Scholarships. NCGA Executive Vice President Harrison Ashley said donors providing $500 will receive a Jack Deloney print, “Down at the GinYard.” Donations can be mailed to the Peary Wilemon-National Cotton Ginners' Scholarship Foundation at PO Box 820285, Memphis, TN 38182-0285.

Scholarship applications also are being accepted and forms can be found online at the NCGA’s web site at http://www.cotton.org/ncga/scholarship/index.cfm.

Cotton Council International (CCI) recruited 32 buyers from 17 top brands and retailers to participate in its second COTTON USA Buyers Tour to China.

The tour was organized for buyers and suppliers of home textile products, and included a briefing session on CCI’s Supply Chain Marketing initiative, a COTTON USA sourcing fair, mill tours and a visit to the Intertextile Shanghai Home trade show. Participating US and European Union brands and retailers included: Bädd & Bad Beyond, Betten Rid, Croscill, Debenhams, Keeco, Land’s End, Li & Fung, Marks & Spencer, Menders from Turkey, Mentex, Metro Buying Group, Target, Wal-Mart, William E. Commor Associates and Zucchi.

CCI and the China Home Textile Assoc. recruited exhibitors for the COTTON USA trade fair and included China’s leading home textile companies -- suppliers which provide high-end home textiles made of US cotton-rich greige fabrics or home textile products.

CCI’s next Buyers Tour in late October will focus on knit and woven fabrics and garments and held in tandem with the Intertextile Shanghai fabric show.

Net export sales for the week ending Sept. 6, ’07 were 107,400 bales (480-lb). This brings total ’07-08 sales to slightly more than 5.0 million bales. Total sales at the same point in the ’06-07 marketing year were approximately 2.6 million bales. Total new crop (’08-09) sales are 150,100 bales.

Shipments for the week were 226,000 bales, bringing total exports to date to 1.7 million bales, compared with the 860,300 bales at the comparable point in the ’06-07 marketing year.

Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16	51.25 cents	*
Coarse Count Adjustment	0.00 cents
Marketing Loan Gain Value	0.75 cents
Import Quotas Open	NA
Step 3 Quotas (480-lb. bales)	NA
ELS Payment Rate	0.00 cents
*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
Five-Day Average
Current 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe	67.78 cents
Forward 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe	NA
Coarse Count c.i.f. Northern Europe	NA
Current US c.i.f. Northern Europe	67.15 cents
Forward US c.i.f. Northern Europe	NA
2006-07 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price
Year-to-Date (August-July)	47.25 cents	**
**August-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment