Cotton's Week: June 15, 2007

Cotton's Week: June 15, 2007

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Commodity Title Mark-up Scheduled

A draft of the commodity title released by the House Committee on Agriculture’s Subcommittee for General Farm Commodities and Risk Management is set to be marked-up on June 19.

The proposed legislation retains the general structure of current law by extending marketing assistance loans, direct payments and counter-cyclical payments. Current cropping flexibility provisions are retained, including the prohibition of fruit and vegetables being planted on base acres.

The provisions also reflect the challenge of working with a substantially lower budget baseline than was available in ’02 and a growing call for reform of certain programs and provisions. The latter considerations seem to have influenced the proposals for the cotton program and payment limitations.

The legislative proposal for subcommittee consideration includes most of the industry’s recommendations to modify the calculation of the adjusted world price to improve competitiveness, flow and reflect new market conditions. The legislation, if enacted, also requires the Secretary to calculate premiums and discounts using weighted market price data.

To assist domestic textile manufacturers, the legislation includes a competitiveness provision which would make available a four cents/lb payment on all upland cotton consumed by the mill as reported to USDA. The legislation continues storage credits through the ’11 crop whenever the AWP is below the loan. The extra-long staple cotton program is extended.

In the draft legislation, the marketing assistance loan rate for upland cotton is set at 50 cents, the direct payment remains at 6.67 cents and the target price is set at 70 cents.

Base acres used for payment and yields will remain as established under the ’02 farm law. Farms with a total base of less than 10 acres are ineligible for direct and counter-cyclical payments. The counter-cyclical payment will continue to be available on 85% of the base acres. The payment base for direct payments may be adjusted from the existing 85% as necessary to meet budget constraints.

The legislation makes a significant change to current payment limitations by eliminating limitations on marketing loan gains and loan deficiency payments. The legislation retains the three-entity rule but requires direct attribution, which effectively limits payments to $40,000 for direct and $65,000 for counter-cyclical. All other rules relative to actively engaged in farming and spouse eligibility are unchanged. The legislation extends the $2.5 million Adjusted Gross Income test included in the ’02 farm law.


FSA County Nominations Begin

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns announced that farmer and rancher candidate nominations begin today for local Farm Service Agency (FSA) county committees. The nomination period continues through Aug. 1, ’07. Elections take place this fall.

To be eligible, a person must participate or cooperate in a program administered by FSA, be eligible to vote in a county committee election and reside in the local administrative area in which the person is a candidate.

Producers may also nominate themselves, and organizations representing minorities and women also may nominate candidates. To become a nominee, eligible individuals must sign form FSA-669A. The form and other information about FSA county committee elections are available online at: http://www.fsa.usda.gov.

Nomination forms for the ’07 election must be postmarked or received in the local USDA Service Center by close of business on Aug. 1, ’07. This year's elections take place Nov. 2 - Dec. 3. Newly elected committee members and alternates take office Jan. 1.

FSA county committee members make decisions on disaster and conservation programs, emergency programs, commodity price support loan programs and other important agricultural issues. Members serve three-year terms.


USDA Sees Lower Stocks Ahead

In its June report, USDA gauged US ’06-07 cotton production at 21.59 million bales. Mill use remained unchanged at 4.90 million bales, while exports were lowered 250,000 bales to 13.00 million. The estimated total offtake now stands at 17.90 million bales, generating ending stocks of 9.80 million bales. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio is 54.7%.

For the ’07-08 crop, USDA projects a US crop of 18.80 million bales. Mill use was unchanged from the previous month at 4.40 million bales. Exports also were unchanged from the previous month at 17.50 million bales. That results in an estimated total offtake of 21.90 million bales and ending stocks of 6.70 million bales. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio is 30.6%.

USDA sees world production for the ’06-07 marketing year at 116.71 million bales, down 340,000 bales from the May report. World mill use was increased 380,000 bales to 122.54 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks are estimated to be 56.39 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 46.0%.

For the ’07-08 crop year, USDA projects world production to reach 115.89 million bales. Mill use is set at 127.41 million bales. World ending stocks are estimated to be 51.23 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 40.2%.


CLC Completes DC Visit

The ’06-07 Cotton Leadership Class visited Washington, DC, to better understand the important role that government agencies and Congress play in the cotton industry. Briefings involved the White House, USDA, the State Department, the US Trade Representative’s office and EPA as well as key House and Senate staff.

The class met with their Congressional Members and also had meetings with other Washington representatives including the National Council of Textile Organizations.

Class members are:  Wayne Boseman, David Cochran, Bryan Gregory, Patrick Johnson, Tammy Leonards, Scott Matlock, Rick Stone, Eric Wanjura, Clint Webb and Brandon Winters. They will graduate at the NCC’s Mid-Year Board of Directors Meeting in August. Sponsored by DuPont Crop Protection, the Cotton Leadership Program is in its 24th year.


Carbamates Review Nearly Complete

EPA is nearing completion of the Food Quality Protection Act mandate to review pesticide residues for all active ingredients on food and fiber. Carbamates, the class of chemistry that includes aldicarb and carbofuran, are last on the review list.

The agency continues to review data submitted by Bayer CropScience, which manufactures Temik brand aldicarb, and FMC Corp., which manufactures Furadan brand carbofuran.

The NCC, California Cotton Growers Assoc., the Georgia Cotton Commission and USDA met with EPA to discuss possible mitigation measures for aldicarb use. Representatives of the cotton community stressed the critical need for effective seasonal rates of the insecticide. EPA also is in discussion with Bayer regarding the proposed risk abatements. The NCC continues to communicate with both Bayer and EPA in an effort to ensure that the mitigation of application rates retains the rates needed for current cotton production practices.

The NCC also continues to support the re-registration of carbofuran. In a letter to EPA, co-signed by the NCC, National Corn Growers Assoc., National Potato Council and National Sunflower Assoc., the affected commodities asked that EPA wait to consider the future availability of the product until after an expert Scientific Advisory Panel had met to make recommendations to the agency. The commodity organizations urged EPA to make full consideration of all available science before handing down a decision.



Combat Resistance Post-Emergence

The NCC again reminds cotton producers to visit its online Weed Resistance Learning Module to learn more about weed resistance management programs – and maintain the long-term productivity and value of their acreage. Available at http://www.cotton.org/tech/pest/wrm, the module points to post-emergence herbicide application as a key stage in combating weeds.

Dr. Ginger Light, author of the course and a researcher at Texas Tech U., said post-emergence gives growers an opportunity to make sure they are using a good weed resistance management program.

“In terms of post-emergence herbicide applications, producers should not exclusively apply the same herbicide or ones with the same mode of action multiple times a year or over multiple years,” she said. “They should apply mixtures or sequential applications of herbicides with a different mode of action and consider the inclusion of a pre-emergence herbicide with a different mode of action.”

The module is sponsored by The Cotton Foundation with financial support from Monsanto, Syngenta and Dow AgroSciences. It also provides a list of contacts in each state in case farmers have questions on management practices, as well as general resource information on cotton herbicides.

Another resource is a Cotton Incorporated bulletin that can be found on the NCC’s web site at http://www.cotton.org/tech/pest/upload/07CIweedresistbulletin.pdf.



Bangladeshi Group Tours Cotton Belt

A delegation representing nine Bangladeshi textile mills met with key US industry officials across the Cotton Belt on a Cotton Council International COTTON USA Special Trade Mission. The companies represented consume more than 470,000 bales of cotton, with US imports of about 75,000 bales – more than half the total sales of US cotton in Bangladesh.

The tour included stops at major cotton growing, research and trading centers in Cary, NC; Memphis, TN; Dallas, TX; and Bakersfield, CA. It included briefings by CCI and the NCC; a seminar with the New York Board of Trade; and tours of a farm, merchandising operation, USDA classing office and Cotton Incorporated’s world headquarters.They also met with: AMCOT, American Cotton Shippers Assoc., Southern Cotton Growers Assoc., American Cotton Producers, Texas Cotton Producers, Texas Cotton Assoc., Western Cotton Shippers Assoc., the San Joaquin Valley Quality Cotton Growers Assoc. and Supima.

The delegation affirmed an increased investment in the Bangladeshi textile industry with cotton consumption projected to almost double from 2.5 million bales in ’06 to 4.8 million bales in ’10. They suggested that imports of US cotton could dramatically increase if tariffs on Bangladeshi exports of textiles and apparel to the US could be waived. The delegation stressed the importance of reducing the occurrence of neps and short fiber content in US cotton. They indicated that US cotton’s advantages in the market are its consistent quality, lack of contamination, USDA classing and timely shipment.

US industry representatives committed to working with the Bangladeshi Textile Mills Assoc. to seek a change in the Bangladeshi government’s requirement that US cotton be fumigated upon entry into Bangladesh. The removal of the fumigation requirements would reduce the cost to land US cotton vs. competing growths.

The US exported approximately 136,000 bales to Bangladesh in ’05/06. Sales in ’06/07 have reached more than 183,000 bales, including 13,000 plus bales of Pima.


Shipments Reach a New High

Net export sales for the week ending June 7 were 146,500 bales (480-lb). This brings total ’06-07 sales to approximately 13.9 million. Total sales at the same point in the ’05-06 marketing year were approximately 17.5 million bales. Total new crop (’07-08) sales are 889,400 bales.

Shipments for the week were 465,100 bales – a marketing year high, bringing total exports to date to 9.6 million bales, compared with the 14.0 million at the comparable point in the ’05-06 marketing year.

With slightly less than two months remaining in the marketing year, weekly shipments must average roughly 459,000 bales to reach the USDA projection of 13.00 million bales.


Prices Effective June 15-21, '07

Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16

46.86 cents

*

Coarse Count Adjustment

0.00 cents

Marketing Loan Gain Value

5.14 cents

Import Quotas Open

 4

Step 3 Quotas (480-lb. bales)

 390,463

ELS Payment Rate

0.00 cents

*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
 
Five-Day Average
 
Current 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe

60.91 cents

Forward 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe

64.45 cents

Coarse Count c.i.f. Northern Europe

NA

Current US c.i.f. Northern Europe

58.85 cents

Forward US c.i.f. Northern Europe

64.35 cents

 
2006-07 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price  
 
Year-to-Date (August-April)

47.73 cents

**

**August-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment

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