Cotton's Week: October 13, 2006

Cotton's Week: October 13, 2006

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Farm Policy Sessions Held

Farm policy discussions were held in Dallas by the American Cotton Producers’ Farm Policy Committee chaired by Jimmy Dodson, Robstown, TX.

The day long program included staff reports on the Congressional calendar and agendas, trade policy, and recent farm policy developments including revenue assurance plans. Meeting objectives were to provide producers with the opportunity to discuss farm bill structure for cotton specific provisions in farm policy, adequate spending authority in budget resolutions, possible support mechanisms for domestic textile manufacturers, and specific aspects of the marketing loan. Ensuring producer eligibility for all program benefits was noted as paramount.

The NCC’s Farm Policy Development Task Force, chaired by Woody Anderson, Colorado City, TX, also met in Dallas where those members received staff reports similar to those provided to the ACP committee. A primary objective of that task force was to begin consensus building in the policy development process. Both groups are advisory to their respective organizations.



USDA Sees 20.7 Million Bales

In its October crop report, USDA estimated a ’06-07 US crop of 20.7 million bales. Upland production was estimated at 19.9 million bales and ELS production at 804,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 12.8 million acres, implying non-harvested area of 2.5 million acres based on USDA’s acreage number. The resulting abandonment rate is roughly 16.1% for the ’06-07 crop. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 774 pounds, 15 pounds above the five-year average.

On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 4.46 million bales, based on harvested acres of 3.24 million and a regional average yield of 662 pounds, 47 pounds below the five-year average for the region. In the Mid-South expected production is 8.23 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 4.19 million acres and the expected yield 944 pounds per harvested acre.

The Southwest upland crop is estimated at 5.73 million bales. Expected harvested area is 4.53 million acres and the regional average yield is 607 pounds.

Upland production in the West is an estimated 1.43 million bales with an estimated harvested area of 541,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,271 pounds, 54 pounds less than the region’s five-year average.

The ELS crop is an estimated 804,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 324,000 acres with an average yield of 1,191 pounds per harvested acre.

U.S. Cotton Crop, 2006-07

 

PLANTED

ACRES

Thou.

HARV.

ACRES

Thou.

YIELD PER

HARV.

ACRE

Lb.

5-YEAR

AVG.

YIELD

Lb.

480-

POUND

BALES

Thou.

UPLAND

 

 

 

 

 

SOUTHEAST

3,355  

3,236 

662  

709 

4,463  

   Alabama

575  

535 

471  

696 

525  

   Florida

105  

104 

577  

599 

125  

   Georgia

1,400  

1,330 

614  

714 

1,700  

   North Carolina

870  

865 

832  

723 

1,500  

   South Carolina

300  

298 

701  

676 

435  

   Virginia

105  

104 

822  

793 

178  

MID-SOUTH

4,225  

4,185 

944  

865 

8,230  

   Arkansas

1,170  

1,160 

1,076  

946 

2,600  

   Louisiana

630  

620 

968  

778 

1,250  

   Mississippi

1,220  

1,210 

833  

856 

2,100  

   Missouri

505  

500 

989  

899 

1,030  

   Tennessee

700  

695 

863  

811 

1,250  

SOUTHWEST

6,830  

4,530 

607  

595 

5,730  

   Kansas

115  

110  

524  

516 

120  

   Oklahoma

315  

220 

458  

633 

210  

   Texas

6,400  

4,200 

617  

595 

5,400  

WEST

545  

541 

1,271  

1,325 

1,432  

   Arizona

210  

208 

1,338  

1,295 

580  

   California

285  

283 

1,272  

1,382 

750  

   New Mexico

50  

50 

979  

896 

102  

TOTAL UPLAND

14,955  

12,492 

763  

749 

19,855  

TOTAL ELS

326  

324 

1,191  

1,270 

804  

   Arizona

7  

891  

933 

13  

   California

275  

274 

1,244  

1,317 

710  

   New Mexico

13  

13 

775  

954 

21  

   Texas

31  

30 

960  

987 

60  

ALL COTTON

15,281  

12,816 

774  

759 

20,659  

Source: USDA-NASS October Crop Production Report. 



First Partial CCPs Announced

Agriculture Deputy Secretary Chuck Conner announced that USDA soon will begin issuing first partial ’06-crop-year counter-cyclical payments for producers with base acres enrolled in USDA's Direct and Counter-cyclical Program (DCP). The ’02 farm law requires that these payments be made in October.

USDA projects counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rates using the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), released on Oct. 12, ’06. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board issues periodic WASDE reports, which provide the most current supply-and-demand forecasts available. Producers enrolled in DCP may receive CCPs when "effective" prices for eligible commodities are less than their respective "target" prices as set in the ’02 farm law.

USDA calculates CCPs based on historical base acreage and payment yields, not current production. The ’06-crop-year projected first partial payment rates, equal to 35% of the total projected amount, are $0.0481 per pound for upland cotton. First installment payments are not available for producers who have wheat, corn, grain sorghum, barley, oats, rice, soybeans and other oilseeds base acres because the effective prices for those crops equal or exceed their respective target prices.

More information on DCP is available at local FSA offices and on FSA's web site at: http://www.fsa.usda.gov.



Stocks-to-Use Ratio Expected to be Unchanged

For the ’06-07 crop year, USDA projected the US crop to reach 20.66 million bales, up 310,000 bales from the September report. US mill use was lowered 200,000 bales to 5.30 million. Exports decreased 200,000 bales to 16.00 million, resulting in total offtake for ’06-07 of 21.30 million bales. Ending stocks for ’06-07 are projected to be 5.40 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 25.4%.

USDA’s report puts US ’05-06 cotton production at 23.89 million bales. Mill use was lowered 10,000 bales to 5.89 million, while exports were increased 490,000 bales to 18.04 million. As a result, projected total offtake increased to 23.92 million, which puts ending stocks at 6.05 million bales and the stocks-to-use ratio at 25.3%.

In its world report, USDA projects ’06-07 marketing year production of 116.19 million bales, up 1.25 million bales from the September report. World mill use was lowered 1.26 million bales from the September report to a projected 120.98 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks on July 31, ’07 are projected to be 52.26 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 43.2%.

The ’05-06 world production estimates were unchanged from the previous month at 114.15 million bales. The beginning stocks estimate increased 40,000 bales to 54.07 million. The world mill use decreased 1.51 million bales to 115.86 million. The world ending stocks for ’05-06 are now pegged at 54.71 million bales. This has a corresponding stocks-to-use ratio of 47.2%.



MSMA Cancellation Input Sought

EPA has extended the comment period for submission of responses to its proposed cancellation of MSMA. The new deadline is Nov. 9, ’06.

NCC, USDA representatives and university Extension weed specialists met with EPA’s pesticide office responsible for evaluating the herbicide to express their support for keeping MSMA available to growers.

As EPA reviews the risks/benefits associated with MSMA, state producer interest groups are also urging the agency to re-register the product they rely on as an effective and affordable means of weed control and as an important component in Integrated Resistance Management programs.

Comments can be submitted on-line at http://www.regulations.gov using the docket ID number: EPA-HQ-OPP-2006-0201.



Air Quality Panel Members Named

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns renewed the Agricultural Air Quality Task Force (AAQTF) and named 29 individuals to serve as members. Members will serve two-year terms that will end Sept. 30, ’08.

AAQTF advises the Secretary on agricultural air quality issues. Its mandate is to strengthen and coordinate USDA's air quality research efforts and identify cost-effective ways to help the agriculture industry improve air quality and meet federal and local air quality emissions requirements. Experts in agriculture, industry, health and science comprise the task force. Representatives from various USDA agencies serve on this task force, and the NRCS Chief serves as chair.

Representing 16 states, the task force’s membership includes 16 members newly appointed and 13 reappointed. Re-appointments include: Bryan W. Shaw, College Station, TX; Kevin Rogers, Mesa, AZ; Roger Isom, Fresno, CA; Bob Avant, Austin, TX; and NCC representative Phil Wakelyn, Washington, DC.

Additional information about the AAQTF can be found at http://www.airquality.nrcs.usda.gov/AAQTF, or by contacting Diane Gelburd, NRCS Designated Federal Officer, at 202-720-2587 or e-mail: mailto:diane.gelburd@wdc.usda.gov.



Sales Hit Marketing Year High

Net export sales for the week ending Oct. 5 were 357,100 bales (480-lb) – a marketing-year high. This brings total ’06-07 sales to about 3.7 million bales. Total sales at the same point in the ’05-06 marketing year were slightly more than 6.7 million bales. Total new crop (’07-08) sales are 137,500 bales.

Shipments for the week were 118,300 bales, bringing total exports to date to 1.3 million, compared with the 2.4 million at the comparable point in the ’05-06 marketing year.



MCEP to Launch

The Multi-Commodity Education Program (MCEP) will be initiated Oct. 23-29 with Midwestern farmers visiting cotton production/processing and other agricultural operations in the Raleigh, NC, area.

The MCEP is a special project funded by grants from Deere & Company and Monsanto. Cotton producers will visit the Midwest next Spring.

The program’s objectives are to provide current and emerging leaders with:  1) a better understanding of conditions and challenges faced by their peers in other geographic regions; and 2) first hand observation of the agronomic practices, technology utilization, cropping patterns, marketing plans and operational structure in other regions.

Participants include: Michael Bruer, (wheat, barley, soybeans) Alberta, MN; Daniel G. Geis, (wheat) Loyal, OK; Clinton D. Jessen, (wheat, alfalfa) Pine Bluffs, WY; Garry Niemeyer, (corn, soybeans) Glenarm, IL; Robert Rynning, (wheat, soybeans, barley, canola) Kennedy, MN; Kevin A. Waslaski, (canola, wheat, field peas, barley) Langdon, ND; and Steven Pigg, (corn, soybeans) Bushnell, IL.

Among key stops in the North Carolina tour will be a visit to Cotton Incorporated in Cary and to Denning Farms in Benson where they will see cotton, soybean, tobacco, poultry production, processing and harvesting and get an overview of North Carolina agriculture.

The group also will tour National Textiles in Sanford, the Sampson County Gin Company and the Gerald Warren Swine Farms, both in Newton Grove, and Monsanto’s research center in Mount Olive.

The trip concludes with a look at peanut production, processing and harvesting and with visits to Carolinas Cotton Growers Assoc. in Garner and to Paxton Bonded Warehouse in Wilson, where Cargill Cotton also will make a presentation.

Let Your Voice Be Heard!

Prices Effective Oct. 13-19, '06

Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16

41.43 cents

*

Coarse Count Adjustment

0.00 cents

Marketing Loan Gain Value

10.57 cents

Import Quotas Open

 8

Step 3 Quotas (480-lb. bales)

 850,594

ELS Payment Rate

0.00 cents

*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
 
Five-Day Average
 
Current 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe

57.53 cents

Forward 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe

 NA

Coarse Count c.i.f. Northern Europe

NA

Current US c.i.f. Northern Europe

58.50 cents

Forward US c.i.f. Northern Europe

 NA

 
2005-06 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price  
 
Final Marketing-Year Average Price

47.70 cents