Cotton's Week: July 15, 2005

Cotton's Week: July 15, 2005

thrive

New Textile Safeguard Petitions Filed

The US textile industry filed petitions with the Committee for the Implementation of Textile Agreements (CITA) to limit imports from China on 4 textile and apparel categories, including cotton skirts, nightwear, swimwear and women’s and girls’ woven shirts.

On July 8, a petition was filed with CITA to limit imports from China of cotton, wool and man-made fiber socks (categories 332/432 and 632 part). Also, a safeguard petition on cotton and man-made fiber curtains and draperies (categories 369 part and 666 part) was re-filed on June 22 because the US government rejected the original petition for technical reasons on June 21.

Once a safeguard petition is filed, CITA has up to 15 working days to accept or reject the petition on its technical merits. If the petition is accepted, a 30-day public comment period will then commence, followed by a 60-day period for CITA to reach a final decision.

The categories are:

Safeguard

Category/Description

China increase Jan. – May  ’05

compared to Jan. - May ’04

% Change

341/641 - W&G c/mmf non-knit shirts

+

2,904,284

dozen

431%

342/642 - c/mmf skirts

+

2,753,506

dozen

770%

351/651 - c/mmf nightwear

+

2,499,068

dozen

534%

359-S/659-S - c/mmf swimwear *

+

3,121,197

kilogram

369%

mmf = man-made fiber

c = cotton

* Swimwear is part of a larger catch-all category.  The petitions on these products, therefore,
cover only part of the categories listed.

 



NCC Distributing Prevention CDs

NCC began distributing compact discs of its “Prevent Lint Contamination” slide show to certified interest organizations. The CDs, which contain English and Spanish versions, also include the necessary software to open and run the slide show. These features allow the viewer to see and hear the presentation if their computer is equipped with a CD drive and a sound card. The CDs also contain the English and Spanish scripts.

In the cover letter accompanying the CDs, NCC Chairman Woods Eastland strongly encourages grower and ginner organizations to show the presentation to their members at upcoming meetings as a way to win the war against lint contamination.

“We want to assure our mill customers and the consumers that they do not need to worry about lint contamination when they buy and use U.S. cotton,” Eastland said. “This presentation is part of the U.S. cotton industry’s unified message that lint contamination can be prevented. The presentation reminds us that our industry must not be complacent. We believe contamination prevention begins at the turn-row and must continue through yarn spinning. We are all better served when we work together starting with cotton growers, harvesting crews and gin employees to eliminate contamination before it gets into cotton bales.

“Although we may not be able to change the weather or significantly increase the quality of our cotton at this point in the season, we can still work to ensure our mill customers understand that lint contamination is an issue that U.S. cotton growers and ginners take seriously. Education and action are the keys to prevention.”

Additional CDs and the decals can be obtained by contacting your NCC Member Service representative or the NCC’s Technical Services Dept. in Memphis. Other NCC contamination prevention education materials are available at www.cotton.org/tech/quality/index.cfm.

The CD distribution is part of an ongoing NCC contamination prevention campaign as sanctioned by NCC delegates and the Joint Cotton Industry Bale Packaging Committee.


Shipments Strong, Sales Slump

Net export sales for the week ending July 7 were 147,900 bales (480-lb). This brings total ’04-05 sales to about 15.9 million bales. Total sales at the same point in the ’03-04 marketing year were about 14.9 million. Total new crop (’05-06) sales are 1.3 million bales.

Shipments for the week were 352,600 bales, bringing total exports to date to 12.2 million bales, compared with the 12.8 million at the comparable point in the ’03-04 marketing year. China continues as the top export customer of US cotton with purchases of 4.2 million bales for ’04-05. Turkey is the second largest customer, having bought 2.3 million bales, while Mexico is third with purchases of 2.0 million bales.



USDA Report Lowers Offtake Projection for ’05-06 Crop Year

In its July report, USDA’s projection of US mill use was unchanged at 5.80 million bales for the ’05-06 crop year. Meanwhile, USDA lowered its estimate for US exports to 14.50 million bales, down 500,000 bales from the June report. As a result, projected total offtake was lowered to 20.30 million bales.

The US production estimate was increased by 300,000 bales to 19.80 million bales for the ’05-06 crop year. The increase reflects the higher acreage estimate published in the June acreage report. The July report reflects abandonment and yield at recent historical average levels. The August estimates, scheduled for release on Aug. 12, will be the first estimates reflecting this year’s crop conditions.

With the changes in production and use prospects, ending stocks for ’05-06 are projected at 6.70 million bales, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 33.0%.

USDA gauged US ’04-05 cotton production at 23.25 million bales. Projected mill use was lowered 50,000 bales from the June report to 6.25 million bales, while exports were increased 300,000 bales to 13.30 million. As a result, projected total offtake for ’04-05 increased 250,000 bales to 19.55 million bales. This generates an ending stock estimate of 7.20 million bales. The estimated stocks-to-use ratio is 36.8%.



USDA Report Increases ’05-06 World Production Estimate

In its July World Supply & Demand report, USDA projects world production of 108.60 million bales for the ’05-06 marketing year, up 2.41 million bales from the June report. India accounts for a significant portion of the increase as its crop is estimated at 16.75 million bales, an increase of 1.25 million bales from the June number.

World mill use was raised 230,000 bales from the June report to a projected 111.76 million bales. Again, India contributed to the higher world number as its estimated mill use was increased by 200,000 bales from June. Consequently, world ending stocks for ’05-06 are projected to be 48.95 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 43.8%.

USDA raised its ’04-05 world production estimates 220,000 bales from the June report to 119.83 million. The agency increased the estimate for beginning stocks to 40.14 million for a world supply of 159.97 million bales. Estimated world mill use was raised 60,000 bales to 108.12 million. The projected world ending stocks on July 31, ’05 is now pegged at 51.13 million bales. This has a corresponding stocks-to-use ratio of 47.3%.



USDA Revises China Cotton Balance Sheet

USDA’s July report announced adjustments to the historical China balance sheet beginning in the ’94-95 marketing year. The adjustments were prompted by 2 developments. First, China’s import demand continues to fall below expectations, suggesting that domestic stocks are larger than previously thought. Second, recent statements by Chinese officials indicate that national reserve stocks are more sizable than originally believed. The result of USDA’s revisions is an increase in ending stocks beginning in ’94-95. By the end of the ’04-05 crop year, stock estimates are 2.7 million bales larger than USDA’s previous estimate.

USDA’s job of estimating China’s cotton supply and demand balance sheet is made more difficult by the fact that the Chinese government does not publish an official balance sheet. A detailed explanation of USDA’s methodology and adjustments can be found at USDA’S Foreign Agriculture Service web site, www.fas.usda.gov/cotton/cotstats.html.



Research, Education and Economics Deputy USDA Post Filled

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns announced that Deputy Under Secretary for Food Safety Dr. Merle Pierson will become Deputy Under Secretary for Research, Education and Economics.

"I commend Dr. Pierson for his dedication and his contributions to the protection of America's food supply as Deputy Under Secretary and acting Under Secretary of Food Safety," Johanns said. "He brings extensive experience in the areas of research and education to his new role . . . and I'm very pleased he will continue to be part of our USDA team."

Dr. Pierson was appointed as deputy under secretary of Food Safety in Feb. ’02, and has served as acting under secretary of Food Safety since Dec. ’04. Prior to coming to USDA, he served as professor of food microbiology and safety at Virginia Tech. He is internationally recognized for his work with Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) and research on the reduction and control of foodborne pathogens.



W. Texas Producers Hosting Southeast Peers

W. Texas cotton producers will host their peers from the Southeast on July 24-28 as part of the ’05 NCC/FMC Producer Information Exchange (P.I.E.) program.

The program’s overall aim is to help America’s cotton producers become more competitive by speeding up their adoption of proven and innovative technology and farming methods. The program is managed by the NCC’s Member Services staff and supported by a grant to The Cotton Foundation from FMC Corp.

Participants include: ALABAMA – Dennis Bragg, Toney, and Tom Ingram, Opelika; FLORIDA – Ben Ellison, Pace; GEORGIA – W. Chandler Lee, Bronwood; MARYLAND – Curtis Lambertson, Stockton; NORTH CAROLINA – Bobby Lassiter, Conway, and Brian Warren, Newton Grove; SOUTH CAROLINA – Roy Hungerpiller, III, Cameron, and James Johnson, Mayesville; MIDDLE TENNESSEE – R. Scott Graham, Taft; and VIRGINIA – Raymond Davis, Jr., Courtland.

Among activities are a visit to Mimms Farms in Acuff and tours of individual farms in the area; a briefing on the Texas Cotton Improvement Program during a visit to the Texas Ag Experiment Station in Lubbock; and tours of the American Cotton Growers Denim Mill in Littlefield; the United Cotton Growers Cooperative Gin in Hockley County, and PYCO Industries and Farmers Cooperative Compress in Lubbock.

The group also will learn about drip irrigation as a water conservation tool at Eco Drip in Garden City; tour farms in GlasscockCounty; and visit with cotton producers in TomGreenCounty.


Prices Effective July 15-21, 2005

Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16

42.96 cents

*

Coarse Count Adjustment

0.00 cents

Current Step 2 Certificate Value

7.73 cents

Marketing Loan Gain Value

9.04 cents

Import Quotas Open

 0

Step 3 Quotas (480-lb. bales)

 0

ELS Payment Rate

74.99 cents

*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
 
Five-Day Average
 
Current 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe

55.77 cents

Forward 3135 c.i.f. Northern Europe

57.85 cents

Coarse Count c.i.f. Northern Europe

56.23 cents

Current US c.i.f. Northern Europe

63.50 cents

Forward US c.i.f. Northern Europe

60.25 cents

 
2004-05 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price  
 
Year-to-Date (August-May)

42.80 cents

**

**August-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment

Sponsored by
Dow AgroSciences