Cotton's Week: November 14, 2003

In its November crop report, USDA estimated a ’03-04 US crop of 18.22 million bales. Upland production was estimated at 17.77 million bales and ELS production at 442,000 bales. US mill use and exports are projected to reach 6.20 and 13.20 million bales, respectively, for total ’03-04 offtake of 19.40 million bales. Ending stocks are a projected 4.25 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 21.9%.

USDA also gauged US ’02-03 cotton production at 17.21 million bales. Both projected mill use and exports were unchanged at 7.27 million bales and 11.90 million bales, respectively. The projected total offtake of 19.17 million bales generates an ending stocks value of 5.38 million bales. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio is 28.1%.

For the ’03-04 marketing year, USDA projected world production at 92.14 million bales, down 2.36 million bales from the October report. China accounts for the majority of this decline, with production estimated at 22 million bales, 3.5 million bales lower than last month’s estimate. World mill use was lowered 760,000 bales to 97.69 million. Consequently, world ending stocks for ’03-04 are projected to be 31.66 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4%.

The ’04 Beltwide Cotton Production Conference will offer attendees insight into today’s cotton issues - from farm support mechanisms to trade negotiations - along with strategies central to profitable cotton farming.

The 2-day session is part of the ’04 Beltwide Cotton Conferences, Jan. 5-9 at the Marriott Rivercenter in San Antonio, TX. Held under a theme of “Today's Challenges - Tomorrow's Solutions,” the conferences also will include The Cotton Foundation Technical Exhibit and the 12 cotton technical conferences covering research progress in disciplines ranging from economics to weed science.

The 49th annual conference, set for Jan. 6-7, will include a first day focus on the major cotton issues. NCC Chairman Robert W. Greene will open the conference with a report on the NCC’s ’04 agenda to address those issues. John Maguire, NCC’s senior vice president-Washington Operations, will provide an update on Capitol Hill activities; J. Berrye Worsham, III, president and CEO of Cotton Incorporated, will cover research priorities for production agriculture and textiles; David Stanford, Plains Cotton Cooperative Assn., will talk about positioning US raw cotton in the global market; and Robert Antoshak, GLOBECOT Associates, will discuss how growers need to position themselves to produce cotton that is suitable for current as well as future fiber processing technologies.

Other reports that morning include NCC Vice Chairman Woody Anderson’s update on a ’03 NCC leadership visit to Brazil; a review of trade issues’ impact on the US cotton industry by NCC President/CEO Mark Lange; an in-depth look at farm program support mechanisms by NCC vice president, Economics and Policy Analysis, Gary Adams; and marketplace insights by Memphis merchant William B. Dunavant, Jr.

The second morning will open with a report by NCC Technical Services Director Andy Jordan on the threat that lint contamination poses. Also included will be an interdisciplinary researcher panel discussing crop rotation’s role in profitable cotton production; a consultant update on cotton varieties and transgenic cottons; insights on near-term and long-term weather from a USDA meteorologist; researcher updates on emerging variable rate pivot irrigation as well as drip irrigation; and a panel of 4 growers discussing innovative farming techniques.

Afternoon workshops will range from crop management systems derived from COTMAN to an in-depth look at farm program support mechanisms. Other seminars will cover precision agriculture, nematode management strategies, advanced options/hedging, farm management/Quicken and an expanded "New Developments from Industry" session.

For further information on conference registration and information, visit the Beltwide web site at http://www.cotton.org/beltwide/ or contact the NCC’s Debbie Richter, P.O. 820285, Memphis, TN 38182 (901) 274-9030 FX (901) 725-0510 or e-mail drichter@cotton.org.

USDA also gauged US ’02-03 cotton production at 17.21 million bales. Both projected mill use and exports were unchanged at 7.27 million bales and 11.90 million bales, respectively. The projected total offtake of 19.17 million bales generates an ending stocks value of 5.38 million bales. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio is 28.1%.

For the ’03-04 marketing year, USDA projected world production at 92.14 million bales, down 2.36 million bales from the October report. China accounts for the majority of this decline, with production estimated at 22 million bales, 3.5 million bales lower than last month’s estimate. World mill use was lowered 760,000 bales to 97.69 million. Consequently, world ending stocks for ’03-04 are projected to be 31.66 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4%.

U.S. Cotton Crop, ’03-04
			Yield Per	5-Year
	Planted	HARV.	Harv.	Avg.	480-Lb.
	Acres	ACRES	Acre	Yield	Bales
	Thou.	Thou.	Lb.	Lb.	Thou.
UPLAND
SOUTHEAST	3,141	2,969	753	603	4,658
AL	560	510	772	569	820
FL	100	97	636	502	128
GA	1,300	1,290	800	608	2,150
NC	840	770	686	636	1,100
SC	250	217	730	541	330
VA	91	85	734	708	130
MID-SOUTH	3,580	3,485	879	700	6,380
AR	950	940	909	757	1,780
LA	550	520	895	638	970
MS	1,120	1,100	916	719	2,100
MO	400	390	825	677	670
TN	560	535	772	644	860
SOUTHWEST	5,915	4,680	467	488	4,550
KS	125	110	653	428	150
OK	190	170	565	518	200
TX	5,600	4,400	458	488	4,200
WEST	815	805	1,303	1,230	2,185
AZ	210	208	1,292	1,264	560
CA	550	555	1,341	1,266	1,550
NM	55	42	857	746	75
TOTAL UPLAND	13,451	11,939	715	638	17,773
TOTAL ELS	180	168	1,260	1,153	442
AZ	4	4	1,108	871	9
CA	150	139	1,312	1,208	380
US Agriculture Debating Case against EU Traceability, Labeling In its November crop report, USDA estimated a ’03-04 US crop of 18.22 million bales. Upland production was estimated at 17.77 million bales and ELS production at 442,000 bales. US mill use and exports are projected to reach 6.20 and 13.20 million bales, respectively, for total ’03-04 offtake of 19.40 million bales. Ending stocks are a projected 4.25 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 21.9%. USDA also gauged US ’02-03 cotton production at 17.21 million bales. Both projected mill use and exports were unchanged at 7.27 million bales and 11.90 million bales, respectively. The projected total offtake of 19.17 million bales generates an ending stocks value of 5.38 million bales. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio is 28.1%. For the ’03-04 marketing year, USDA projected world production at 92.14 million bales, down 2.36 million bales from the October report. China accounts for the majority of this decline, with production estimated at 22 million bales, 3.5 million bales lower than last month’s estimate. World mill use was lowered 760,000 bales to 97.69 million. Consequently, world ending stocks for ’03-04 are projected to be 31.66 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4%. <TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 31; page-break-inside: avoid&qu U.S. Cotton Crop, ’03-04       Yield Per 5-Year     Planted HARV. Harv. Avg. 480-Lb.   Acres ACRES Acre Yield Bales   Thou. Thou. Lb. Lb. Thou. UPLAND           SOUTHEAST 3,141 2,969 753 603 4,658 AL 560 510 772 569 820 FL 100 97 636 502 128 GA 1,300 1,290 800 608 2,150 NC 840 770 686 636 1,100 SC 250 217 730 541 330 VA 91 85 734 708 130 MID-SOUTH 3,580 3,485 879 700 6,380 AR  950 940 909 757 1,780 LA 550 520 895 638 970 MS 1,120 1,100 916 719 2,100 MO 400 390 825 677 670 TN 560 535 772 644 860 SOUTHWEST 5,915 4,680 467 488 4,550 KS 125 110 653 428 150 OK 190 170 565 518 200 TX 5,600 4,400 458 488 4,200 WEST 815 805 1,303 1,230 2,185 AZ 210 208 1,292 1,264 560 CA 550 555 1,341 1,266 1,550 NM 55 42 857 746 75 TOTAL UPLAND 13,451 11,939 715 638 17,773 TOTAL ELS 180 168 1,260 1,153 442 AZ 4 4 1,108 871 9 CA 150 139 1,312 1,208 380 Industry Fees Amendment Accepted by Senate Committee The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee accepted an amendment offered by Sen. Craig (R-ID) to include a pesticide fees increase to the Veterans Affairs and Housing and Urban Development Bill (S.1584). Offered on behalf of Agriculture Committee Chairman Cochran (R-MS), the action will temporarily increase pesticide maintenance and registration fees in order for the EPA to complete its ’06 pesticide re-registration project mandated under the ’96 Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA). Under FQPA, the EPA was given broad authority to raise fees for not only maintaining old registrations and the registration of new products, but also to raise fees for the establishment of tolerances on food and feed, seen as the responsibility of the EPA and not industry by pesticide manufacturers. Additionally, there was no directive for the EPA to apply these funds to the registration of pesticides but instead went into the general treasury. This bill prohibits the collection of tolerance fees and will raise about $200 million in additional maintenance and registration fees. Furthermore, the funds will be earmarked for the registration division of the EPA so they are not misused and placed into irrelevant programs. Finally, the bill obligates the EPA to make decisions on all new compounds within 24 months, with a provision to register “reduced risk” chemistries in 21 months. This timeline will supposedly save pesticide manufacturers millions of dollars in overhead costs by allowing them to market their products in a reasonable amount of time as opposed to waiting 5 years or longer to get a product registered. The NCC encouraged Cotton Belt Senators to co-sponsor the bill for introduction into the Senate, with 8 co-sponsoring the bill with Chairman Cochran. The bill most likely will be incorporated in the omnibus package and included in the overall spending bill. The funding provided not only will bring accountability and timeliness to the EPA’s registration process, but also will allow the EPA to finish its FQPA responsibilities on time. The timely completion of the re-registration process is needed to prevent future lawsuits by the environmental community, which has used FQPA as a vehicle to attack pesticide use on many occasions. Senate Committee Approves Highway Bill The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee approved reauthorization of the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21), providing $255 billion to address the nation's surface transportation needs over the next 6 years. Most notably, the bill will affect many Cotton Belt states by increasing the rate of return for donor states that put more money into the highway trust fund than they receive back for state highway needs. The measure guarantees all donor states at least a 95% return. Although the committee passed the bill, Senate floor action is not expected until next year. The Senate passed a short-term extension of the original bill until Feb. 29 earlier this year. Export Sales for Week Ending Nov. 6 Net export sales passed the 7.2-million bale mark for ’03-04 with sales of 479,200 bales (480-lb.) for the week ending Nov. 6. Total sales at the same point in the ’02-03 marketing year were almost 5.6 million bales. Total new crop (’04-05) sales are 259,600 bales. Shipments for the week were 208,300 bales, bringing total exports to date to 2.1 million bales, ahead of the 1.9 million bales at the comparable point in the ’02-03 marketing year. Prices Effective November 14-20, 2003 In its November crop report, USDA estimated a ’03-04 US crop of 18.22 million bales. Upland production was estimated at 17.77 million bales and ELS production at 442,000 bales. US mill use and exports are projected to reach 6.20 and 13.20 million bales, respectively, for total ’03-04 offtake of 19.40 million bales. Ending stocks are a projected 4.25 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 21.9%. USDA also gauged US ’02-03 cotton production at 17.21 million bales. Both projected mill use and exports were unchanged at 7.27 million bales and 11.90 million bales, respectively. The projected total offtake of 19.17 million bales generates an ending stocks value of 5.38 million bales. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio is 28.1%. For the ’03-04 marketing year, USDA projected world production at 92.14 million bales, down 2.36 million bales from the October report. China accounts for the majority of this decline, with production estimated at 22 million bales, 3.5 million bales lower than last month’s estimate. World mill use was lowered 760,000 bales to 97.69 million. Consequently, world ending stocks for ’03-04 are projected to be 31.66 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4%. <TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 31; page-break-inside: avoid&qu U.S. Cotton Crop, ’03-04       Yield Per 5-Year     Planted HARV. Harv. Avg. 480-Lb.   Acres ACRES Acre Yield Bales   Thou. Thou. Lb. Lb. Thou. UPLAND           SOUTHEAST 3,141 2,969 753 603 4,658 AL 560 510 772 569 820 FL 100 97 636 502 128 GA 1,300 1,290 800 608 2,150 NC 840 770 686 636 1,100 SC 250 217 730 541 330 VA 91 85 734 708 130 MID-SOUTH 3,580 3,485 879 700 6,380 AR  950 940 909 757 1,780 LA 550 520 895 638 970 MS 1,120 1,100 916 719 2,100 MO 400 390 825 677 670 TN 560 535 772 644 860 SOUTHWEST 5,915 4,680 467 488 4,550 KS 125 110 653 428 150 OK 190 170 565 518 200 TX 5,600 4,400 458 488 4,200 WEST 815 805 1,303 1,230 2,185 AZ 210 208 1,292 1,264 560 CA 550 555 1,341 1,266 1,550 NM 55 42 857 746 75 TOTAL UPLAND 13,451 11,939 715 638 17,773 TOTAL ELS 180 168 1,260 1,153 442 AZ 4 4 1,108 871 9 CA 150 139 1,312 1,208 380 Sponsored by