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August 26, 2011
 

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NCC Board Updated on Key Activities

NCC officers and directors along with other industry leaders attending the NCC's Mid-Year Board meeting in Santa Fe, NM, were updated on key issues and upcoming challenges and opportunities facing the industry.

After reviewing the NCC's major activities of '11, NCC Chairman Charles Parker stated that throughout the federal budget process, the NCC has played an active role in contacts with the Administration and Congressional leaders and in combined communications with other agricultural groups to express strong opposition to any deficit reduction package containing disproportionate reductions for agriculture.

"We also have emphasized the need for adequate funding to craft a balanced farm bill and for the Agriculture Committees to make those policy decisions," Parker said. "Now, under the terms of the deficit reduction agreement, we face the very real possibility of effectively establishing the provisions for the next farm bill in the coming weeks. Thankfully, the Council's Farm Policy Task Force was re-established in December 2009, which was well in advance of the normal timeline for the development of the 2012 farm bill."

Parker told attendees the Task Force has been meeting regularly "to review budget constraints, political pressures for program changes, and the potential impacts of the World Trade Organization dispute with Brazil. While the central goal of the Task Force has remained the same – to maintain an effective safety net for US cotton—it instructed staff to continue to develop and review models that assist with the analysis of various policy options as well as alternative programs and delivery systems." He noted that the NCC's Farm Policy Task Force had met just prior to the Mid-Year Meeting's open session to weigh the various farm program options in light of the current budget and political situation and the potential timetable for decision making. (see story below)

John Maguire, the NCC's senior vice president, Washington Operations, updated directors on environmental and trade issues as well as the budget and appropriations status, including key upcoming dates involved in the Budget Control Act of 2011's enactment.

Gary Adams, the NCC's vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis, told attendees in his economic update that the current cotton market is focused on recent weakness in demand as polyester poses strong competition. In addition, declines in yarn prices have left some textile mills with stocks of uncompetitive cotton yarn spun at higher cotton prices.

For US production, Adams said the '11 crop will be smaller due to extreme drought in the Southwest while US stocks will remain tight globally as international production is expected to reach a new record. He noted that key policy decisions on China's stocks and India's exports also will affect the market with the key question being -- when will demand recover.

In his update on the Vision 21 stakeholder report, NCC President/CEO Mark Lange reviewed the project's study results/progress and future efforts resulting from its three strategic study areas:1) analysis of the demographic and structural facets, with underlying sources of change, in the Asian consumer apparel and textile product markets, with a subcomponent project to study the "Impact of Seven Revolutions on Cotton Products"; 2) "sustainability" and environmental aspects of US cotton production, storage, transport, textile processing, apparel manufacturing and consumer handling to include complete life-cycle environmental and energy analyses for typical polyester and cotton consumer products, including consumer handling and disposal, and; 3) logistical issues affecting raw cotton flow from the gin bale press through warehousing to the spinning mill. Staff from Cotton Council International (CCI), Cotton Incorporated and the NCC, all to varying degrees, managed the three areas of study. Lange said the project's final effort will be communication, in the widest possible manner, of the findings/analysis to the US cotton industry and affiliated interests. The Cotton Foundation project was initiated in late '08 with financial support provided by Monsanto and with additional financial support provided by John Deere.

CCI President John Mitchell reported that CCI was again the largest recipient of combined Foreign Market Development and Market Access Program allocations.

"We need to remain confident that the private-sector/public-sector partnership that has endured for 56 years and has proven to be a huge success in US agricultural export growth will continue in some form – and we need to work toward ensuring its continuation," he said. "In this tight budget environment, nothing can be taken for granted ... as we export virtually all of our U.S. cotton as either fiber, yarn or fabric." He noted that NCC and other organizations continue to make the case in the House and the Senate that these export promotion programs are every bit as important today as they were 56 years ago, that they are WTO compliant, and that they are a major contributor to US agricultural export success.

In addition to the usual advertising and promotions, trade fairs and teams, Mitchell reported that CCI and Cotton Incorporated will host the biennial COTTON USA Orientation Tour to the US Cotton Belt, will host, along with NCC, a Chinese Leadership Team, and will send a US cotton industry executive delegation to Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Other activities include supply chain marketing conferences in Prague, Istanbul and Singapore, and work with US yarn and fabric manufacturers to convince Latin American and Korean garment manufacturers to specify US yarn and fabric.

 
NCC Issues Farm Policy Statement

At the NCC's Mid-Year Board meeting in Santa Fe, the Board of Directors approved an upland cotton policy position for the '12 farm bill. The combination of the marketing loan, Direct Payments (DP) and Counter-cyclical Payments (CCP), as structured in the '08 farm bill, has served the cotton industry extraordinarily well and, in recent years, has required minimal federal outlays. Recognizing that future deficit reduction efforts will place unprecedented pressure on the existing program structure, there is concern that simply downsizing the Direct and Counter-cyclical Payment (DCP) programs would likely undermine the effectiveness of the programs to the extent that alternatives must be evaluated to ensure growers have access to the most effective safety net. In addition, the cotton industry faces the unique challenge of making program changes that will resolve the longstanding Brazil WTO case.

To respond to these challenges, the industry recommends an adjustment to the current program, which will result in strengthening growers' ability to manage risk by making an affordable revenue-based crop insurance program available for purchase. The revenue-based crop insurance safety net would be complemented by a modified marketing loan that is adjusted to satisfy the Brazil WTO case. In the opinion of the US cotton industry, this structure will best utilize reduced budget resources, respond to public criticism by directing benefits to growers who suffer losses resulting from factors beyond their control, and build on existing crop insurance program, thus ensuring there is no duplication and offering the potential for program simplification.

The full statement is available on the NCC website's home page, www.cotton.org.

 
Migration of EXCERPT Information Begins

Country specific phytosanitary requirement information is moving from Purdue University's EXCERPT system to a new location on the Phytosanitary Certificate Issuance & Tracking (PCIT) website. According to USDA's Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), "The Phytosanitary Export Database(PExD) contains phytosanitary import requirements of US-origin commodities to foreign countries (and) this information may be retrieved by users with access to PCIT." Information already migrated includes individual country product requirements, general information and subsidiary information.

The link to PExD is at the bottom of the PCIT home page, https://pcit.aphis.usda.gov/pcit/. An important feature of the PExD site is that a user name or login are not required to search for country specific information. Another change from EXCERPT is that botanical names instead of common names are used in PExD searches. For example, the genus name for cotton "Gossypium" yields results in PExD but "cotton" will not yield any results when a country search is performed.

While the PExD searches provide up to date information, exporters still are encouraged to work with an Export Certification specialist before attempting to export baled cotton, cotton seed or cotton seed products to any country.

 
US Mill Cotton Use Steady

According to the Commerce Dept., July (four-week month) total cotton consumption in domestic mills was 121.0 million pounds for a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.39 million bales (480-lb). Last year's July annualized rate was 3.53 million bales. The June (five-week month) estimate of domestic mill use of cotton was raised by 711,000 pounds to 165.8 million. The revised seasonally adjusted annualized rate of consumption for June is 3.52 million. This is higher than last year's June annualized rate of 3.47 million bales.

Commerce's estimate of both upland and extra-long staple (ELS) consumption of cotton by US mills, when adjusted to represent the complete '10-11 crop year, is approximately 3.61 million bales. USDA's August estimate of '10-11 crop year mill use was 3.80 million bales. Commerce's estimate of exports for the '10-11 crop year is approximately 14.38 million bales, compared to USDA's latest export estimate of 14.40 million bales.

Commerce's survey-based estimate of stocks on hand as of July 31, '11 was 2.84 million bales. USDA's August estimate of ending stocks for the '10-11 crop year was 2.85 million bales. USDA's next supply and demand estimates are scheduled to be released on Sept. 12.

This is the last Cotton Consumption report from the Commerce Dept. due to the discontinuation of the Current Industrial Reports. NCC will continue discussions with USDA regarding estimates for US mill use in the absence of the Commerce Dept. reports.

 
Sales, Shipments Lag

Net export sales for the week ending Aug. 18 were -237,100 bales (480-lb). This brings total '11-12 sales to approximately 6.7 million bales. Total sales at the same point in the '10-11 marketing year were approximately 6.9 million bales. Total new crop ('12-13) sales are 143,200 bales.

Shipments for the week were 93,000 bales, bringing total exports to date to 265,000 bales, compared with the 681,900 bales at the comparable point in the '10-11 marketing year.

 

 
Effective Aug. 26-Sept. 1, ’11

Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16

 91.96 cents

*

Fine Count Adjustment ('10 Crop)

 0.34 cents


Fine Count Adjustment ('11 Crop)

  0.39 cents


Coarse Count Adjustment

  0.00 cents


Marketing Loan Gain Value

 0.00 cents


Import Quotas Open

1


Limited Global Import Quota (480-lb bales)

204,465


ELS Payment Rate

0.00 cents


*No Adjustment Made Under Step I

 

Five-Day Average



Current 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East

112.52 cents


Forward 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East

NA


Coarse Count CFR Far East

NA


Current US CFR Far East

123.00 cents


Forward US CFR Far East

NA


 

'10-11 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price  
 

Year-to-Date (Aug.-June)

81.47 cents

**


**August-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment