Embedding an Expert System into a Stochastic Simulation Model for the Analysis of Control Strategies for Heliothis in Texas

Lukas P. Schaub and Nicholas D. Stone


 
ABSTRACT

An agroecosystem model was constructed comprising four components and their interactions: a stochastic weather generator, a deterministic plant submodel, a stochastic insect submodel, and a heuristic submodel of management decisions represented by a rulebased expert system. Stochastic economic relations were included to transform model output into profit. The model is driven by a random weather generator. The goal is to compare three management strategies, representing an extension specialist, an extension publication and a static economic threshold. Multiple simulations provide distributions of profit under each strategy over a wide range of input conditions. These distributions are compared with stochastic dominance.



Reprinted from Proceedings: 1989 Beltwide Cotton Research Conferences pp. 220 - 222
©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN

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Document last modified Sunday, Dec 6 1998