In September 1927, USDA forecast that in the next few months, cotton prices would drop. And they did. Congress, believing there to be a causal relationship between the two events. Subsequently forbade the USDA from ever again publishing a cotton price forecast. Attempts to change the law have failed--the latest try was in 1978-79--and the prohibition remains in place.

Does it make any difference that USDA cannot publish forecasts of cotton prices? Analysis of unpublished USDA forecasts, made prior to the start of each crop year since 1964. indicates that USDA forecasts season average cotton prices received by farmers with about the same degree of accuracy as does the futures market. By late summer, USDA may actually do better than the December contract, perhaps because the futures market is not focused on season average farm prices. Still, publication of price forecasts by USDA would provide little additional information to the market that would have been statistically significant.