If a single open boll is worth $00.00168 what is the value of a small square? To answer this question we determined the survival probabilities of fruit on each fruiting point of cotton plants grown under low, moderate, and high input management systems. This probability multiplied by the expected value of a mature boll provides an estimate of the value of a small square. The survival probability is dependent on the location of the fruit on the plant and the time of the year that growth is initiated. For example, a small square near the first fruiting point on a plant might have a value of $00.0009 whereas small squares produced 20 days later had no value when grown under dryland conditions. With this information we can begin to estimate the true cost of damage by plant bugs and other pests.