Cottonseed Oil Price Fundamentals

Diane K. Willimack


 
ABSTRACT

Cottonseed oil price changes can be explained in terms of supply and demand for cottonseed oil and its substitutes. Because of the relatively high degree of substitutability among vegetable oils and animal fats, cottonseed oil price may be determined in a wider market. This paper compares the relationships between the price of cottonseed oil and its own supply/demand balance, that of its primary competitor, soybean oil, and the supply/demand balance for all edible fats and oils. Here the "measures" for supply/demand balance, or market tightness, are the stocks-to-use ratio and ending stocks for the market under consideration. The results show that the price of cottonseed oil, like soybean oil price, is related more strongly to supply/demand balance within the entire edible fats and oils sector. In addition, cottonseed oil price is significantly related to the reciprocal of its own ending stocks. This relationship, suggesting that tighter stocks increase price more than larger stocks decrease it, is indicative of cottonseed oil's position in the fats and oils sector as a blending or specialty oil.



Reprinted from 1986 Proceedings: Beltwide Cotton Production Research Conferences pp. 323 - 327
©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN

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Document last modified Sunday, Dec 6 1998