A 16-equation model to forecast a season average upland cotton price and monthly average cotton prices in April, for the coming crop year, is presented. Price forecasts for the 1983-84 crop year were generated using the model and the average error was 3.78 cents per pound. The use of these price forecasts in making cotton storage decisions is demonstrated.

Cotton producers need accurate price information to make their production and marketing decisions. Prices of the inputs needed in cotton production are available to farmers at the time they are deciding what to produce, but output prices are also needed. Federal farm commodity programs give participating farmers some idea of the minimum prices they can expect to receive for cotton, as well as for other major program crop alternatives. Although the minimum prices provide some price information and remove some uncertainty, they do not provide all the price information needed to make good production and marketing decisions. The ideal situation would be to know product prices in advance with certainty. Because product prices are not known with certainty before planting, the next best alternative is to get the most accurate price forecasts possible for the crops that can be produced. These product price forecasts can be used with more readily available input prices to make the decision of what to produce.