Modifying Moving Average Models to Identify Price Trends to Improve Cotton Marketing Strategies

Daniel L. Bluntzer, Carl G. Anderson, Carl E. Shafer


Cotton futures markets have long been viewed as a means of managing price risk. This analysis determined differences in cumulative returns as trade parameters were added to moving average trading models. Data included daily closes from the December, March, and July cotton futures contracts beginning in 1979 and continuing through 1991. In addition, the total number of trades, total number of winning trades, and the largest interday drawdown in any single year were determined. Results were itemized into all trades as well as hedging trades from the producer's vantage point. December and July 9 and 40-day moving average models showed an advantage over the 16 and 25-day moving average models, and over profits originating from the March contract. Furthermore, separation of long and short trades indicated there was a potential for producers to increase revenue both from hedging production and as an alternative to storage after harvest.

Reprinted from Proceedings of the 1994 Beltwide Cotton Conferences pp. 425 - 427
©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN

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Document last modified Sunday, Dec 6 1998