Analyzing Farmer's Yield Expectations for Cotton Using Subjective Probabilities

Lonnie Vandeveer, Kenneth Paxton and David Lavergne


 
ABSTRACT

Previous studies have outlined procedures and advantages of using subjective data in analyzing risk and returns on farms; however, fewer studies have used this approach in farm level decision analysis. The general objective of this analysis is to evaluate both dryland and irrigated cotton yields using farmer estimated subjective yields. The results of the analysis suggest that per unit cash requirements of production are less for irrigated cotton than for dryland cotton. Results also indicate that producers are more likely to cover cash requirements of production under irrigated conditions than for dryland conditions.



Reprinted from 1992 Proceedings Beltwide Cotton Conferences pp. 428 - 430
©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN

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Document last modified Sunday, Dec 6 1998