A Quantitative Analysis of the Japanese Import Demand for U.S. Cotton

C.W. Herndon, E.M. Tubbs, and E.A. Stennis


 
ABSTRACT

Japanese imports represent about 20 percent of total U.S. raw cotton exports. Given the significance of the Japanese market to the industry, a import demand equation was estimated through the use of regression analysis. Using quarterly data for the 10-year period of 1973 through 1982 revealed that Japanese imports of U.S. cotton exhibited a distinct seasonal pattern. Approximately 80 percent of the variation in quarterly Japanese import demand was explained by three continuous variables and a set of seasonal indicator (or dummy) variables. This analysis found that Japanese demand for U.S. cotton imports were dependent on: (1) the price difference between U.S. and U.S.S.R. cotton; (2) Japanese industrial production index; (3) Japanese mill consumption of raw cotton; and (4) the quarter(season) of the year.



Reprinted from 1987 Proceedings: Beltwide Cotton Production Research Conferences pp. 395 - 398
©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN

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Document last modified Sunday, Dec 6 1998