ABSTRACT
Japanese imports represent about 20 percent of total U.S. raw cotton exports. Given the significance of the Japanese market to the industry, a import demand equation was estimated through the use of regression analysis. Using quarterly data for the 10-year period of 1973 through 1982 revealed that Japanese imports of U.S. cotton exhibited a distinct seasonal pattern. Approximately 80 percent of the variation in quarterly Japanese import demand was explained by three continuous variables and a set of seasonal indicator (or dummy) variables. This analysis found that Japanese demand for U.S. cotton imports were dependent on: (1) the price difference between U.S. and U.S.S.R. cotton; (2) Japanese industrial production index; (3) Japanese mill consumption of raw cotton; and (4) the quarter(season) of the year.
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