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A structural model and a statistical model have been developed to estimate
the amount of cotton used for apparent apparel consumption by employing
two independent approaches. Three government and private databases were
employed for the modeling and analysis work; U.S. Census Bureau data,
NPD consumer panel data, and NCC fiber shipment data. Analyses were
made to investigate the impact of foreign exchange rate and the hourly
wage on cotton demand in apparel using a multi-variate regression model.
The cotton consumption for year 2000 and 2001 was forecasted by using
a time series model. The results show that both the foreign exchange rate
and the hourly wage have significant impacts on cotton demand in domestic
apparel market. The overall cotton demand in apparel market is likely to
decrease steadily whereas the import/export will increase rapidly. The
results from two different data sources were quite comparable and have
shown little difference in the forecasted demands. This study has
demonstrated a possibility of estimating the mill consumption of cotton for |
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©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN |
Document last modified XXXXXX, XXX XX 2001
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