ABSTRACT
A structural model and a simple analytic model have been developed to estimate the amount of cotton processed by U.S. textile mills and consumed in U.S. for men's and boys' bottom. Three databases were employed for the modeling and analysis work; NPD consumer panel data, NCC fiber shipment data, and Werner import/export data. By using AR(1) model and a linear model, the cotton consumption estimates for year 1998, 1999 and 2000 have been obtained. The results show that the overall cotton demand for those categories is likely to increase continuously whereas the U.S. textile mill production for filling the need will increase only marginally. This preliminary work has demonstrated a possibility of estimating the portion of U.S. textile mill production of all cotton goods which is consumed in U.S. perhaps by making similar analyses for other major product categories.
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