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Modeling of U.S. Men's Apparel Consumption Trends and Its Implication on Textil Mill Cotton Consumption

Moon W. Suh and Eun-Kyung Lee


 
ABSTRACT

A structural model and a simple analytic model have been developed to estimate the amount of cotton processed by U.S. textile mills and consumed in U.S. for men's and boys' bottom. Three databases were employed for the modeling and analysis work; NPD consumer panel data, NCC fiber shipment data, and Werner import/export data. By using AR(1) model and a linear model, the cotton consumption estimates for year 1998, 1999 and 2000 have been obtained. The results show that the overall cotton demand for those categories is likely to increase continuously whereas the U.S. textile mill production for filling the need will increase only marginally. This preliminary work has demonstrated a possibility of estimating the portion of U.S. textile mill production of all cotton goods which is consumed in U.S. perhaps by making similar analyses for other major product categories.



Reprinted from Proceedings of the 1999 Beltwide Cotton Conferences pp. 339 - 343
©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN

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Document last modified Monday, Jun 21 1999