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Analysis of Selected Futures Markets Cotton Trading and Pricing Strategies

Alexy Kokarev, O.A. Cleveland and C.W."Bill" Herndon, Jr.


 
ABSTRACT

Four cotton price risk management strategies were evaluated to ascertain how these marketing alternatives might be used by producers and other parties. Three of the selected strategies are futures and options of futures trading scenarios or alternatives that were evaluated for the 1987 to 1996 time period. Each of these three strategies yielded an average annual return over the 10-year analysis period of 2.99, 3.08, and 2.51 cents/lb for Strategy 1, 2, and 3; respectively. The fourth strategy is described as both a trading and pricing alternative that was evaluated over the 1980 to 1996 period and evaluated the effect of changes in government cotton programs mandated by the 1985 Farm Bill. A regression model was developed to improve the economic efficiency of Strategy 4. This constructed regression model was successful in improving the effectiveness of Strategy 4 by employing information about three variables: December futures contract prices, world supply-to-use ratio, and Chinese supply-to-use ratio



Reprinted from Proceedings of the 1997 Beltwide Cotton Conferences pp. 238 - 244
©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN

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Document last modified Sunday, Dec 6 1998