In its December crop report, USDA estimated a '12-13 US crop of 17.26 million bales, down approximately 190,000 bales from the November report. Upland production was estimated at 16.60million bales and extra-long staple (ELS) production at 657,000 bales. Harvested area was an estimated 10.44 million acres, implying a non-harvested area of 1.92 million acres based on planted acreage revised from USDA's June Acreage Report. The resulting abandonment rate is 15.5%. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 793 pounds, 24 pounds less than the five-year average.
On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 5.54 million bales based on harvested acres of 2.73 million and a regional average yield of 974, 185 pounds more than the region's five-year average. In the Mid-South, expected production is 4.14 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 1.97 million acres and the expected yield is 913 pounds per harvested acre or 98 pounds more than the region's five-year average. The Southwest upland crop is estimated at 5.71 million bales. Expected harvested area is 5.13 million acres and the regional average yield is 534 pounds, 168 pounds less than its five-year average. Upland production in the West is an estimated 1.22 million bales with an estimated harvested area of 386,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,517 pounds, 50 pounds more than the region's five-year average.
The ELS crop is an estimated 657,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 237,000 acres with an average yield of 1,328 pounds per harvested acre.
State-level results are reported in the accompanying table.
Source: USDA-NASS December Crop Production Report.
1/ Updated from June Acreage Report.
Export Projection Raised
In its December report, USDA raised '12-13 exports by 200,000 bales to 11.80 million bales. US mill use was unchanged at 3.40 million bales. This generates a total '12-13 offtake of 15.20 million bales. Ending stocks for '12-13 are projected to be 5.40 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 35.5%.
For the '11-12 crop year, USDA puts US production at 15.57 million bales. Mill use and exports were unchanged from the November report at 3.30 million and 11.71 million bales, respectively. Total offtake for the '11-12 crop year was 15.01 million bales. Ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month at 3.35 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio for the '11-12 marketing year is 22.3%.
USDA's report raised '12-13 world production by 70,000 bales from the November report to 116.90 million bales. World mill use was raised 150,000 bales to a projected 106.48 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks for '12-13 are projected to be 79.64 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 74.8%.
For the '11-12 marketing year, USDA estimated world production at 124.27 million bales, down 10,000 bales from last month's report. Estimated world mill use was raised 40,000 bales to 103.21 million. World ending stocks on July 31, '12 are now estimated at 69.18 million bales. This has a corresponding stocks-to-use ratio of 67.0%.
EPA to Issue Bee Kill Guidance
At a meeting with the State-FIFRA Issues Research and Evaluation Group (SFIREG), which is comprised of state pesticide officials, EPA announced that its Region 5 office has taken the lead in developing a guidance document intended to provide states with a "reasonable" set of instructions for conducting bee kill investigations.
A draft version of the guidance document is under review by the Office of Pesticide Programs and the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance, and the regional office hopes to release a final guidance document on bee kill incident investigations in the spring of '13.
According to EPA, the guidance document would promote greater consistency in how the lead pesticide agencies in states conduct bee kill investigations and would improve the quality of data received by EPA. Bee kill incidents are more complicated than other incidents, such as bird kills, because they can be difficult for investigators to determine which pesticides were used in a large area that could have led to the kill. Additionally, EPA has not received many incident reports despite allowing beekeepers to report incidents to state agencies, the National Pesticide Information Center and directly to EPA via email.
The agency also is planning to work with USDA to identify a government "point of contact" for pollinator protection issues. That official or office would be in charge of facilitating coordination of pollinator protection issues among government agencies, state pesticide agencies and other interested parties.
EPA also has established a Pollinator Workgroup within its advisory group, the Pesticide Program Dialogue Committee, to provide EPA with recommendations on numerous pollinator protection issues.
Bale Packaging Committee Members Sought
Text Appointment letters from NCC Chairman Chuck Coley were mailed to several new and returning raw cotton committee members requesting their service on the Joint Cotton Industry Bale Packaging Committee (JCIBPC). The JCIBPC is a joint NCC and National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO) committee and consists of two groups, a raw cotton group and a mill group.
The JCIBPC's '13 meeting will be on the afternoon of Feb. 27 at the Peabody Hotel in Memphis. On-site registration will open at 12:15 p.m. The meeting format for the Committee's 46th meeting includes an afternoon general session followed by an executive session where experimental bale packaging test programs and field trials are reviewed. A second general session will be held at the conclusion of the executive session.
At a public meeting at the White House, the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) released a report entitled, "Report to the President on Agricultural Preparedness & the Agriculture Research Enterprise."
The report concludes that the United States is the undisputed world leader in agricultural production today, but also cautions that US agriculture faces a number of challenges that are poised to become much more serious in the years ahead. The report prioritizes the top seven scientific challenges facing agriculture: the need to manage new pests, pathogens, and invasive plants; increase the efficiency of water use; reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture; adapt to a changing climate; and accommodate demands for bioenergy.
PCAST notes that the United States is deriving a substantial societal return on its current investments in agricultural research. Based on an analysis of nearly three dozen studies focused on the impact of agricultural research on food, feed, and energy production and on food safety and nutrition over the past several decades, PCAST concludes that the economy has gained at least $10 in benefits for every $1 invested in agricultural research.
However,the new report points to two major shortcomings in the current U.S. agricultural research enterprise. First, although competitive grants are widely recognized as having greater innovation potential than grants based on other mechanisms, the proportion of federal funding for agricultural research allocated through competitive mechanisms is far below the proportion for other fields of research in other science agencies. Second, the current agricultural research portfolio overlaps too much with private-sector activities while underfunding areas that are not adequately addressed through private efforts—a situation that calls out for a rebalancing of the research portfolio in favor of greater federal attention to basic, non-commercial research for the public good and workforce development.
For example, PCAST recommends that USDA rebalance its in-house research budget away from its current focus on commodities such as corn, soy, rice, wheat and cotton which today account for 36% of the USDA intramural research budget. The private sector already is motivated to invest in improvements in these crops, according to the report, and USDA should aim more of its resources at targets that offer fewer immediate benefits to the private sector.
Overall, the report recommends that the United States increase its investment in agricultural research by a total of $700 million per year to nurture a new "innovation ecosystem" that would leverage the best of America's diverse science and technology enterprise for advancements in agriculture. That would include an increase in the National Science Foundation budget for basic science relevant to agriculture to $250 million per year from the current $120 million and an increase in USDA's budget for competitive funding of extramural research to $500 million per year from the current $265 million, consistent with the National Institute of Food & Agriculture '08 Congressional authorization.
The report observes that where new money is not feasible, there should be a continued focus on increasing the proportion of research funds awarded competitively and a strategic re-balancing of the research and development portfolio to the seven scientific challenges it identifies. Finally, PCAST calls for the creation of six large, multi-disciplinary innovation institutes focused on emerging challenges to agriculture, to be supported by public-private partnerships.
International Climate Change Conference Chilly
Delegates from 194 countries met for a two-week round of talks at the United Nation's 18th conference on climate change in Doha, Qatar, ending on Dec. 8 without much result.
The Kyoto Protocol expires this year and environmentalists were hoping for a new and improved international agreement. However, after marathon negotiations over the weekend, little was accomplished except fort an agreement -- officially dubbed the "Doha Climate Gateway" -- that would extend the Kyoto Protocol until '20. The agreement only will include the EU, Australia, Norway, Switzerland and a few other countries. Japan, Russia, Canada and New Zealand are not taking part; the United States never ratified the Protocol.
One of the major flaws of the Kyoto Protocol was its exclusion of developing countries from emission reduction requirements. China was classed then as a developing country but it is now the world's largest emitter and soon will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy. China has made clear its determination to hang on to its developing country status and that the countries classed as developed in '97 must continue to bear most of the burden for emissions cuts. India, another large emitter, also is considered a developing country under Kyoto.
In separate negotiations, set up to include the Unites States, it was agreed to allow unified discussions to begin on a global climate treaty that would require both developed and developing countries to cut their emissions. The treaty is supposed to be signed in '15, at a conference in Paris, and come into effect in '20.
The other major topic of discussion was pledges of monetary compensation from developed countries to developing countries for alleged damages incurred due to climate change. Industrialized countries promised to put $100 billion a year into a Green Climate Fund by '20. To bridge the gap till then, developing nations asked for $60 billion in total by '15. Britain, Germany and a few other countries promised to contribute $6 billion but this pledge is not binding. This is the first time developing countries have received such assurances, and the first time the phrase "loss and damage from climate change" has been enshrined in an international legal document.
The United States had strongly opposed the initial "loss and damage" proposals, which would have set up a new international institution to collect and disperse funds to vulnerable countries. US negotiators also made certain that neither the word "compensation" nor any other term connoting legal liability was used to avoid opening the floodgates to litigation – instead, the money will be judged as aid.
Key questions remain unanswered, including whether funds devoted to "loss and damage" will come from existing humanitarian aid and disaster relief budgets. The United States is one of the world's largest donors of humanitarian aid and disaster relief, from both public and private sources. It will be difficult to ascertain damage inflicted by climate change from other natural disasters.
Another question is how the funds will be disbursed. Developing countries wanted a new institution, like a bank, but the United States is set against that, preferring to use existing international institutions. These issues will have to be further negotiated at next year's climate conference in Warsaw.
Supply Chain Event Nets Record Results
Thirteen top brands and retailers sourced US cotton at the COTTON USA ASEAN Supply Chain Conference in Vietnam while 43 companies across the global supply chain set record results at the Cotton Council International event.
Ho Chi Minh City was the Conference site where 15 mills from Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, including Tyfountex, Lucky, Nan Yang, Thai Textile Industry, Phong Phu, and Thanh Cong, attended to promote their US cotton rich fabrics to 13 international brands/retailers and 15 ASEAN-based apparel manufacturers. USDA's Ho Chi Minh-based agricultural attaché also attended.
The Conference featured a global cotton production supply/demand report from Cotton Incorporated, as well as presentations on trade agreements affecting ASEAN and the Vietnamese textile/garment industries.
A record 986 individual meetings between buyers and suppliers led to widespread sampling and expected orders. Participant feedback reported that each company met a significant number of good potential customers/suppliers.
Sales, Shipments Stay Strong
Net export sales for the week ending Dec. 6 were 308,500 bales (480-lb). This brings total ‘12-13 sales to approximately 8.5 million bales. Total sales at the same point in the ‘11-12 marketing year were approximately 10.4 million bales. Total new crop (‘13-14) sales are 529,700 bales.
Shipments for the week were 194,900 bales, bringing total exports to date to 2.9 million bales, compared with the 2.3 million bales at the comparable point in the ‘11-12 marketing year.
Effective Dec. 14-20 ’12
Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16
62.37 cents
*
Fine Count Adjustment ('11 Crop)
0.64 cents
Fine Count Adjustment ('12 Crop)
0.84 cents
Coarse Count Adjustment
0.00 cents
Marketing Loan Gain Value
0.00 cents
Import Quotas Open
13
Special Import Quota (480-lb bales)
845,912
ELS Payment Rate
0.00 cents
*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
Five-Day Average
Current 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East
82.62 cents
Forward 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East
NA
Coarse Count CFR Far East
NA
Current US CFR Far East
84.70 cents
Forward US CFR Far East
NA
'12-13 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price
Year-to-Date (Aug.-Oct.)
69.84 cents
**
**Aug.-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment
