All cotton producers are encouraged to respond to the NCC’s annual survey of ’12 planting intentions, which was recently distributed to upland and extra-long staple (ELS) cotton producers across the Cotton Belt. The current survey was distributed through a combination of regular mail and email with the intent of reaching all US cotton farms. Growers who did not receive a survey may contact the NCC via email at econsurvey@cotton.org for survey instructions.
The survey, conducted each year to aid with industry planning and policy deliberations, provides the basis for the economic outlook presented to delegates during the NCC Annual Meeting in early February. Survey results will be presented during the Joint Meeting of Program Committees on Saturday morning, Feb. 11. To enhance the survey’s accuracy, producers are encouraged to respond by the Jan. 24 deadline.
'12 NCC Annual Meeting Registration Continues
Meeting information, including housing and travel, as well as online registration, for the NCC's '12 Annual Meeting, Feb. 10-12, at the Omni Fort Worth Hotel in Fort Worth, TX, is available at www.cotton.org/news/meetings/am/2012/index.cfm. A general information booklet was mailed to industry leaders in December.
Room reservations should made by calling 1-800-843-6664. The cut-off date for room reservations is Wednesday, Jan. 18.
The '12 annual meeting maintains the shortened meeting format introduced at the '11 annual meeting. The convention's first events begin at 1:30 pm on Friday, Feb. 10. The final event, the General Session, begins at 10 am and concludes at noon on Sunday, Feb. 12. The joint session of delegates will convene on Saturday morning at 8 am and include the NCC's planting intentions survey. The Saturday luncheon will feature Alex Castellanos, one of the Republican party's best known and most successful media consultants and strategists, discussing "Politics and Election 2012: A Look into the Future."
Obama Proposes Reorganizing Trade Offices
President Obama announced he is asking Congressto reinstate broad executive branch authority to reorganize the federal government, starting with the consolidation of six departments and agencies with trade and export authority -- including the US Trade Representative's office (USTR), the Dept. of Commerce's trade divisions, the Small Business Administration, the Export-Import Bank, the Overseas Private Investment Corp. and the Trade and Development Agency.
According to Jeffery Zents, the federal chief performance officer and deputy director of management at the Office of Management and Budget, the President is asking for the reinstatement of the authority that former presidents had for more than 50 years, which would allow submission of specific proposals to Congress for a "fast-track, up-or-down" vote.
The President intends to elevate the current administrator of the Small Business Administration to Cabinet level, until the new trade department is established. The President will decide later who will be the secretary of the new trade department. The changes under consideration would essentially dismantle the Dept. of Commerce, including moving the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to the Dept. of the Interior. Other agencies in Commerce, such as the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, would be combined with the Dept. of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, resulting in a new statistics agency that would be made part of the new trade department.
The President first proposed a reorganization of trade-related agencies in last year's State of the Union address as a way to streamline government agencies involved in trade policy and export promotion programs. The President is asking for reinstatement of the authority that presidents have had to reorganize the government. In '84, Congress stopped granting that authority during Reagan's presidency. If Congress grants the President this power, they would have 90 days to vote on his proposed changes.
Last March, President Obama sent a memorandum to the heads of all executive branch agencies asking them to assist in the development of a plan to restructure and streamline the federal government, starting with trade and export agencies.
Following thatannouncement,NCC Chairman Charles Parker, in a statement, complimented the initiative to streamline and make government more efficient, but cautioned against making changes that would undermine the effectiveness of agencies -- including the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and the USTR's office. He expressed concern that if USTR were consolidated with an agency like the Export-Import Bank, it could increase bureaucracy and limit USTR's ability to operate efficiently. The NCC and other agricultural groups, in meetings and communications, also strongly urged the Administration not to merge the FAS into any other agencies as it is a highly effective and efficient agency that meets the special challenges of promoting exports of US agriculture products(see Cotton's Week 3/18/11).
USDA Announces Blueprint for Stronger Service
Saying USDA must be built to meet the evolving needs of a 21st century agricultural economy, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack unveiled the agency's USDA's Blueprint for Stronger Service. The USDA announcement said the plan will help producers continue to drive America's economy by streamlining operations and cutting costs.
The Blueprint for Stronger Service is based on a Department-wide review of operations conducted as part of the Administration's Campaign to Cut Waste, launched by President Obama and Vice President Biden to make government work better and more efficiently for the American people.
The USDA will close 259 domestic offices, facilities and labs across the country, as well as seven foreign offices. In some cases, offices are no longer staffed or have a very small staff of one or two; many are within 20 miles of other USDA offices. In other cases, technology improvements, advanced service centers and broadband service have reduced some need for brick and mortar facilities. When fully implemented, these actions, along with other recommended changes, will provide efficiencies valued at about $150 million annually -- and eventually more based on future realignment of the workforce. These plans and actions include:
Farm Service Agency (FSA): Consolidate 131 county offices in 32 states; more than 2,100 FSA offices remain throughout the United States;
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS): Close two country offices; more than 95 FAS offices remain throughout the world;Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS): Close 15 APHIS offices in 11 states and five APHIS offices in five foreign countries; more than 560 APHIS offices remain throughout the United States and 55 remain throughout the world;
Rural Development (RD): Close 43 area and sub offices in 17 states and US territories; approximately 450 RD offices remain throughout the United States;
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS): Close 24 soil survey offices in 21 states; more than 2,800 NRCS offices remain throughout the United States;
Food Safety and Inspection Service: Close five district offices in five states; 10 district offices remain throughout the United States;
Agricultural Research Service: Close 12 programs at 10 locations; more than 240 programs remain throughout the United States; and
Food, Nutrition and Consumer Services (FNCS): Close 31 field offices in 28 states; 32 FNCS offices will remain throughout the United States.
In its January crop report, USDA sees a '11-12 US cotton crop of 15.67 million bales, down 160,000 from the December report. Upland production was put at 14.83 million bales and extra-long staple (ELS) at 846,000 bales. Harvested area was put at 9.75 million acres, implying a non-harvested area of 4.98 million acres based on USDA's revised report. The resulting abandonment rate is 33.8%. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 772 pounds, 50 pounds less than the five-year average.
On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 5.13 million bales, based on harvested acres of 3.30 million acres and a regional average yield of 745 pounds, 43 pounds less than the region's five-year average. In the Mid-South, expected production is 4.59 million bales. Harvested area in that region is at 2.41 million acres with an expected yield of 913 pounds per harvested acre. The Southwest upland crop is seen at 3.63 million bales. Expected harvested area is 3.24 million acres and the regional average yield is 539 pounds, 172 less than their five-year average of 711 pounds per harvested acre. Upland production in the West is an estimated 1.48 million bales on 491,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,447 pounds, 20 pounds more than the region's five-year average yield.
The ELS crop is an estimated 846,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 304,000 acres with an average yield of 1,336 pounds per harvested acre.
State-level estimates are in the accompanying table.
Source: USDA-NASS Jan. Annual Crop Production Report.
1/ Updated from June Acreage Report.
'11-12 US Cotton Export Projection Lowered
In its January report, USDA lowered the '11-12 US cotton exports projection by 300,000 bales from the December report to 11.00 million bales. US mill use was unchanged from the December report at 3.60 million bales. This generates a total '11-12 offtake of 14.6 million bales, with ending stocks projected to be 3.70 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 25.3%.
For the '10-11 crop year, USDA gauged US cotton production at 18.10 million bales. Mill use and exports were unchanged from the December report at 3.90 million and 14.38 million bales, respectively. Total offtake for the '10-11 crop year is pegged at 18.28 million bales. Ending stocks were 2.60 million bales and the stocks-to-use ratio was 14.2% for the '10-11 marketing year.
The report sees '11-12 world production estimates lowered by 580,000 bales from the December report to 122.84 million bales. World mill use was lowered 1.35 million bales from the December report to a projected 109.99 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks for '11-12 are projected to be 58.35 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 39.7%.
For the '10-11 marketing year, USDA put world production at 115.32 bales, 40,000 bales more from the previous month. World mill use was raised 150,000 bales from the previous month to 114.32 million bales. World ending stocks on July 31, '11 are estimated at 45.35 million bales. This has a corresponding stocks-to-use ratio of 53.1%.
Sales, Shipments Steady
Net export sales for the week ending Jan. 5 were 96,700 bales (480-lb). This brings total '11-12 sales to approximately 10.7 million bales. Total sales at the same point in the '10-11 marketing year were approximately 14.4 million bales. Total new crop ('12-13) sales are 447,700 bales.
Shipments for the week were 174,400 bales, bringing total exports to date to 3.1 million bales, compared with the 4.6 million bales at the comparable point in the '10-11 marketing year.
Effective Jan. 13-19, ’12
Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16
80.12 cents
*
Fine Count Adjustment ('10 Crop)
1.65 cents
Fine Count Adjustment ('11 Crop)
1.70 cents
Coarse Count Adjustment
0.00 cents
Marketing Loan Gain Value
0.00 cents
Import Quotas Open
10
Limited Global Import Quota (480-lb bales)
670,299
ELS Payment Rate
0.00 cents
*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
Five-Day Average
Current 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East
100.68 cents
Forward 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East
NA
Coarse Count CFR Far East
NA
Current US CFR Far East
108.05 cents
Forward US CFR Far East
NA
'11-12 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price
Year-to-Date (Aug.-Nov.)
92.75 cents
**
**August-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment
