In its November crop report, USDA projected a '11-12 US crop of 16.30 million bales, down 310,000 bales from the October report. Upland production was estimated at 15.56 million bales and extra-long staple (ELS) production at 737,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 9.85 million acres, implying a non-harvested area of 4.87 million acres based on USDA's revised June acreage report. The resulting abandonment rate is roughly 33.1%. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 794 pounds, 28 pounds lower than the five-year average.
On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 5.28 million bales, based on harvested acres of 3.30 million acres and a regional average yield of 768 pounds, 20 pounds lower than the five-year average for the region. In terms of yield per harvested acre, Georgialeads all states in the region with an estimated yield of 837 pounds per harvested acre, four pounds greater than its five-year average yield. The largest yield gain is expected for Alabama. Yield in Alabama is estimated at 731 pounds per harvested acre, 101 pounds higher than their five-year average. The largest yield decline is expected for North Carolina with yield estimated at 660 pounds per harvested acre, 147 pounds below its five-year average.
In the Mid-South, expected production is 4.80 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 2.41 million acres with an expected yield of 958 pounds per harvested acre. Only Arkansas is expected to see a yield decline with an estimated 996 pounds per harvested acre, 18 pounds lower than its five-year average. Missouriis expected to lead the region in yield with an estimated 1,131 pounds per harvested acre, 132 pounds greater than its five-year average.
The Southwest upland crop is estimated at 4.04 million bales. Expected harvested area for the region is 3.37 million acres and the regional average yield is 576 pounds, 135 pounds lower than its five-year average of 711 pounds per harvested acre. All states in the region are down in terms of yield with the greatest decline expected to be seen in Oklahoma, down 236 pounds to 504 pounds per harvested acre. The Texasupland crop is estimated at 3.85 million bales. Expected harvested area in Texas is 3.20 million acres and the average yield is 578 pounds, down 133 pounds from its five-year average.
Upland production in the West is an estimated 1.45 million bales with an estimated harvested area of 492,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,410 pounds, 17 pounds lower than the region's five-year average. The greatest gains in yield are expected for Arizona, up 41 pounds to an estimated 1,510 pounds per harvested acre.
The ELS crop is an estimated 737,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 288,000 acres with an average yield of 1,231 pounds per harvested acre.
Source: USDA-NASS November Crop Production Report. 1/ Updated from June Acreage Report.
Mill Use Unchanged, Exports Lowered
In its November report, USDA saw US mill use unchanged from the previous month at 3.80 million bales while exports were lowered 200,000 bales to 11.30 million bales. This generates a total '11-12 offtake of 15.10 million bales. Ending stocks for '11-12 are projected at 3.80 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 25.2%.
For the '10-11 crop year, USDA gauged US cotton production at 18.10 million bales. Estimated mill use and exports were unchanged from the October report at 3.90 million bales and 14.38 million bales, respectively. Total offtake for the '10-11 crop year is estimated at 18.28 million bales. Ending stocks were estimated at 2.60 million bales. The estimated stocks-to-use ratio for the '10-11 marketing year is 14.2%.
In USDA's November report, the projected '11-12 world production estimate was lowered 300,000 bales from the October report to 123.89 million bales. World mill use was lowered 110,000 bales from the October report to a projected 114.27 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks for '11-12 are projected to be 54.96 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 48.1%.
For the '10-11 marketing year, USDA puts world production at 115.28 million bales, up 200,000 bales from the October report. World mill use was raised 30,000 bales to 114.35 million. World ending stocks on July 31, '11 are now estimated at 45.22 million bales. This generates a corresponding stocks-to-use ratio of 39.5%.
NCC Supports Dust Legislation
The NCC, along with other agricultural interests, has signed a letter to leadership of the House and Senate, as well as relevant committee leaders, in support of the Farm Dust Regulation Prevention Act of 2011 (H.R. 1633, S. 1528).
These bills would prohibit the EPA Administrator from proposing, finalizing, implementing or enforcing any regulation that would revise the national primary ambient air quality standard or the national secondary ambient air quality standard applicable to particulate matter (PM) with a diameter greater than 2.5 micrometers under the Clean Air Act (CAA) for one year.
The bills also would define "nuisance dust" as PM: (1) generated from natural sources, unpaved roads, agricultural activities, earth moving or other activities typically conducted in rural areas; or (2) consisting primarily of soil, other natural or biological materials, windblown dust, or some combination thereof. Nuisance dust would be exempted from CAA regulations unless EPA finds that: (1) nuisance dust causes substantial adverse public health and welfare effects at ambient concentrations; and (2) the benefits of applying CAA standards and other requirements to such dust outweigh the costs.
H.R. 1633 has 114 cosponsors and been reported favorably out of subcommittee to the House Energy & Commerce Committee. S. 1528 has 26 cosponsors and has been referred to the Senate Environment & Public Works Committee where no further action has occurred.
Support for these bills comes despite a recent statement by EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson that she is willing to retain the current PM10 standard. In a letter to Sen. Klobuchar (D-MN), Jackson said, "Based on my consideration of the scientific record, analysis provided by EPA scientists, and advice from the Clean Air Science Advisory Council, I am prepared to propose the retention with no revision—of the current PM10 standard and form."
Rural and farm states, particularly those in the West, Midwest, South and Southwest regions of the country have been particularly concerned with EPA's PM review as most of the PM measured in those areas are coarse PM. Depending on the options under EPA review, numerous counties in these states could have found themselves in non-attainment status and subject to additional control measures.
USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) Administrator Bruce Nelson announced that USDA is accepting comments on a proposed rule to streamline the process for its Secretarial Disaster Designation, which will allow farmers and ranchers devastated by natural disaster to obtain assistance more quickly. The improvements outlined in the proposed rule aim to cut the time to make a disaster designation by as much as 70%. Designating disaster counties is a key step to authorizing disaster assistance for some of the programs administered by USDA.
"America's farmers and rural communities are vitally important to our nation's economy, producing the food, feed, fiber and fuel that continue to help us grow," Nelson said. "Therefore, it's crucial that we help farmers remain productive through difficult times. When disaster strikes, this proposal will help us provide assistance more quickly, streamlining processes from six steps to two. That's the kind of improvement we need to make."
A natural disaster designation makes all qualified farm operators in the designated areas eligible for a variety of assistance from USDA, including low interest emergency loans and the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program. The Secretary of Agriculture is authorized to designate disaster counties to make disaster assistance programs available to farmers and ranchers.
Currently, designations require a state governor or Indian tribal council to initiate a disaster designation through a formal request of the Secretary. The process has been in place for more than two decades and regulations have not been substantively revised since '88.
The proposed rule for Secretarial Disaster Designations would: 1) streamline the USDA Secretarial designation process from a six-step process to a two-step process, 2) expedite and simplify the disaster designation process for severe drought occurrences by using the US Drought Monitor as a tool to automatically trigger disaster areas with no further documentation, and 3) remove the requirement that a request for a disaster designation be initiated by a state governor or Indian tribal council. However, the rule still allows a state governor or Indian tribal council to request a Secretarial Disaster Designation.
The proposed rule, which will appear in the Federal Register on Nov. 14, '11, atwww.regulations.gov, has a 60-day comment period. Comments on the proposed rule must be submitted no later than Jan. 13, '12, to be considered.
Some Common Acreage Reporting Dates Streamlined
USDA announced establishment of 15 common Acreage Reporting Dates (ARDs) for farmers and ranchers participating in their programs. The common reporting dates will reduce the reporting burden on producers and also help to reduce USDA operating costs by sharing similar data across participating agencies. USDA's Risk Management Agency (RMA) and Farm Service Agency (FSA) each rely on ARDs to administer their programs.
"Implementation of common acreage reporting dates is a major step by our agencies to assist American producers and help build a better, stronger and more efficient USDA," RMA Administrator William Murphy said. "This change does not reduce or modify the programs or services that RMA or FSA provides, but will enable most crop insurance agents and FSA County office staff to collect information in a more uniform and efficient manner."
In the past year, a joint RMA-FSA review team undertook an exercise — known as the Acreage Crop Reporting Streamlining Initiative (ACRSI) — to examine the ARDs across both RMA and FSA. Before the streamlining, RMA had 54 ARDs for 122 crops, and FSA had 17 ARDs for 273 crops. The review team consolidated all of them into the 15 common ARDs.
RMA and FSA will implement the July 15, '12, and Aug. 15, '12, ARDs for certain commodities during the '12 crop/program year. The remaining common ARDs will be implemented during the '13 crop/program year.
Sales Surge, Shipments Steady
Net export sales for the week ending Nov. 3 were 1.0 million bales (480-lb). This brings total '11-12 sales to approximately 8.9 million bales. Total sales at the same point in the '10-11 marketing year were approximately 12.2 million bales. Total new crop ('12-13) sales are 345,400 bales.
Shipments for the week were 113,800 bales, bringing total exports to date to 1.3 million bales, compared with the 2.2 million bales at the comparable point in the '10-11 marketing year.
Effective Nov. 11-17, ’11
Adjusted World Price, SLM 11/16
86.59 cents
*
Fine Count Adjustment ('10 Crop)
1.23 cents
Fine Count Adjustment ('11 Crop)
1.28 cents
Coarse Count Adjustment
0.00 cents
Marketing Loan Gain Value
0.00 cents
Import Quotas Open
1
Limited Global Import Quota (480-lb bales)
67,030
ELS Payment Rate
0.00 cents
*No Adjustment Made Under Step I
Five-Day Average
Current 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East
107.15 cents
Forward 5 Lowest 3135 CFR Far East
NA
Coarse Count CFR Far East
NA
Current US CFR Far East
110.55 cents
Forward US CFR Far East
NA
'11-12 Weighted Marketing-Year Average Farm Price
Year-to-Date (Aug.-Sept.)
93.77 cents
**
**August-July average price used in determination of counter-cyclical payment
