Developing a Bayesian Approach for Estimating the Proportion of Cotton Plants at Risk to Insect Attack

J.L. Willers, R.L. Olson, M.R. Williams, and T.L. Wagner


 
ABSTRACT

The Bayesian approach to sampling is characterized by a subjective approach to probability. One attractive feature of the Bayesian approach is the fact that a decision maker's 'degree of belief' in an unknown parameter changes with additional information. This characteristic provides an approach for the evaluation and update of sparse information.

An illustration using a sequential Bayesian algorithm is directed toward a common entomological problem: the estimation of pest abundance within a cotton field. The example shows how the use of more information influences the knowledge of an entomologist, and demonstrates how statements about the accuracy of that knowledge are readily available.



Reprinted from 1990 Proceedings: Beltwide Cotton Production Research Conferences pp. 246 - 247
©National Cotton Council, Memphis TN

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Document last modified Sunday, Dec 6 1998